Monday, February 19, 2007

Housing Slump - Bigger Than Ever

Despite the repeated denial by those in the REIC (real estate industrial complex) over the past 2 years, the numbers don't lie. And the numbers from the 4th quarter of '06 were not pretty, especially in locales with unusually bloated prices - does that sound familiar to you?

'NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The slump in home prices was both deeper and more widespread than ever in the fourth quarter, according to a trade group report Thursday.

Prices slumped 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter a year earlier, according to the report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That's the biggest year-over-year drop on record and follows a 1.0 percent year-over-year decline in the third quarter.

The most recent median prices are down even more: 3.4 percent since hitting record highs in the second quarter. Almost three-quarters of the markets, reported on by the group, saw declines in median prices over the past six months, with eight reporting double-digit declines.'

And what about those aforementioned bloated markets?

'Vacation markets, where investor-buyers had driven up prices during the building boom of 2005, were particularly hard-hit.

The Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, Fla., market saw the biggest year-over-year decline in the fourth quarter, with prices plunging 18 percent.

When looking at the change between the fourth quarter and the second-quarter peak, the Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla., market saw the biggest drop, with median prices plunging 19.5 percent.'

Really, is anyone surprised? Unfortunately for those in the larger metro areas of our state (Orlando, Tampa, Miami-Palm Beach), the realtors have been dramatically UNDER-reporting the median sales prices for the past 2 years. Now that prices in these markets have started to fall dramatically, it won't make the news because the previous year comparison numbers have been cooked (to a crisp!).

In the smaller Florida markets however, the realtors haven't been able to disguise the sales prices so easily, and that's where we've seen the biggest news reports of declines.

Back to the article. Despite all the bad news, the used-car salesmen from NAR (National Ass. of Realtors) keep on shovelling the bull$hit.

'Examination of data within the quarter shows home prices stabilizing toward the end," said a statement from David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist. "When we get the figures for this spring, I expect to see a discernible improvement in both sales and prices.'

Remember, this is the same guy (I always get a chuckle when I see others refer to him as "David Lie-area") has been predicting a "soft landing" and a "quick turnaround" since 2005. During this time period, sales have continued to drop, inventory has climbed to new records every quarter, and foreclosures have skyrocketed. I just want to know - how does he do it, lying to the public, over and over and over again? But wait, there's more - this time from the president of NAR.

'NAR President Pat Vredevoogd Combs, a Grand Rapids, Mich., realtor, admitted the group doesn't expect to see a big gain in 2007 statistics.

"Right now, buyers are responding to seller pricing and incentives, and there's a bit of a pent-up demand as a result of buyer hesitation during the second half of 2006," she said in the group's statement. "We're not looking for big changes, but a gradual rise in sales and home prices is projected - that will be good for the overall housing market and related industries."'

Where does she come up with these figures? Again, inventories are at an all-time high, 2.1 million homes are sitting empty, and every major historical indicator says home prices (especially in Florida) must drop at least 30% before getting back in line with median incomes.

The facts: prices are NOT going to rise in 2007, sales are going to continue to drop, and the overall housing market is going to be in bad shape until prices get back to historical trend lines. At this point, the only real question is how long before the price correction goes into full swing.

Full Article

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Right on again, brother. I'd be willin' to bet that holy water would burn like battery acid on the skin of those satan-spawn-sleazebags in NAR & FAR.

What a bunch of lyin' scum-buckets - they cheerled the bubble to the point of losing all credability. Now let them feast on the decaying wreck of the market they helped create.

Anonymous said...

I hate to say it, but I'm still not seeing much of a price drop in Orlando and Tampa. A lot of inventory that's been sitting around since last summer - how long can this last?

Anonymous said...

This dummies are in total denial. They will go bankrupt first before selling way below equity.

Bring on the pain......

Anonymous said...

I agree - the denial tank is still somewhere between 3/4 and FULL.

We've got a lot of aligator bleeding to do before the next phase.

BigBagel said...

I'm with Sandi. Alot of people have to be hurting but prices are not dropping as they should be in the Tampa area.

Anonymous said...

Interesting note. One of the residents of Briny Breezes has listed their trailer. Do you think they are realizing this deal most likely will not happen and they still want to make a killing?
Here is the ad:

27 shares of briny breezes co-op stock. Buy now for big payoff potential. Briny is under contract, set to close march 2009. Buyer could profit significantly from this transaction. Seller not offering guarantee of sale or waranting any sale info 27 shares in briny breezes co-op stock. Briny breezes is currently under contract to be sold march 2009, this offer could net new owner over 800k. This offer is not guaranteed and neither seller, nor broker warrant any guarantees. Buyer should ver ify all info.

If I owned their I would be doing the same thing.

On another interesting note, whats up with the idea of getting rid of property taxes and raising the Sales Tax?
What do you think? I like it.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-fproptax20feb20,0,116507.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

FL - Paradise Lost said...

I saw that proposal too - completely eliminating property taxes for all homesteads, locking the rate increases for commercial/rental/vacation homes, and making up for it with a large increase in the sales tax.

This is HUGE news, and will be the subject of the next post.

Dragasoni said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Dragasoni said...

Prices are definitely dropping in the Tampa area. Go to www.zillow.com and search in your zip code. Make sure you set the view to only show recent sales (the yellow flag). You'll see property selling at foreclosure prices. You can even verify these selling prices on the county appraiser sites.

For example, a 2 bed 2 bath condo in my complex had an asking price of $251,000 back in the summer of 2006. It sold last month for $114,500. The previous owners paid $170,000 for this POS condo. Talk about getting burned.

My best advice to everyone is to RENT while this bubble deflates, and let the insurance crisis work itself out. Now is NOT the time to buy anything. I would hold off until 2009, if you can, so you get a fair deal. Remember, good things come to those who wait :)

-Dragasoni-

Anonymous said...

Went house hunting in Sarasota/Bradenton two weeks ago. We spent most of our time in an area called Lakewood Ranch. It is an area that we've been told to concentrate on because we have children. It was shocking and disgusting what homes cost! What was more shocking were the number of homes for sale and rent. There was one section that is new with what I would call starter homes(If you call $450k a starter home cost). Every other house was for sale, yards looked messy and the junk you could see in the garages. A total turn off!

Other areas were much nicer, but costs much more. The Country Club area was ridiculous! I even laughed when the realtor drove us by 2500 sq. ft. million dollar homes. When asked what people do for a living that they can afford to live there I was told Doctors, Lawyers, Professionals and lots of realtors. That one made me laugh again. I don't really put realtors in the same realm as doctors! Of course the old stand by of folks from up north selling their homes and making a fortune....I

n the established areas, the number of homes for sale was mind boggling. The realtor kept saying it's a buyers market, such a selection and sellers willing to negotiate.... Whan I asked are they willing to take 40% off the price, he said that he doubted it. When I explained I couldn't see paying someone double what they paid for a home two-three years ago, he said I understand. Not too much of the persuading I've heard about(prices only go up, they aren't making anymore land, it's a great investment....) Just that it's a booming area and you can't go wrong. And of course, things are really starting to pick up!

Moving to Florida SUCKS!!!!

FL - Paradise Lost said...

Florida Bound - you couldn't have said it any more succintly. There is a great amount of hubris and arrogance amongst the sellers in regards to price.

They have totally deceived themselves into thinking that the irrational runup of the past several years was based on solid market principles - when (as we have shown here, many times over) there was no fundamentals at all.

It was just a lethal combination of banks lending out too much money, crooked apprasiers, "me too!" spec-u-vestors, and uneducated real estate agents spewing complete bs to the media.

Stay informed and thanks for the report on your housing search. Keep on posting!

- Jerry (who lives in a N. Tampa subdivision that hasn't had a home sale in 6 1/2 months)

Anonymous said...

"Whan I asked are they willing to take 40% off the price, he said that he doubted it. "

Why ask him? Make an offer and see what happens.
Do NOT trust a slimly Real Whore EVER.
They will screw their Grandmother over to make a commission.

Also, better not to even bother looking at homes as it seems to make sellers have some kind of hope if they see buyers coming around.

Anonymous said...

Those same false fundamentals are still quoted and still believed by the dupes that are still buying property here in Coral Springs. These folks will believe anything they read in the paper or see on TV. I would love to get the raw data on what is happening here, but no one is examining realty.

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梁爵 said...

2020.05.30酒店小姐的基本介紹跟工作內容酒店兼職:梁曉尊/梁小尊 打工上班前如何調整心態!!!
很多人想到八大行業我在酒店上班的日子,許多大學生尋求酒店打工以及上班族想兼差卻沒有良好的酒店兼職管道。酒店經紀梁曉尊的部落格提供大家可選擇不敢來酒店上班-酒店打工的原因的管道!女孩們在與酒店經紀梁曉尊用LINE對話或者利用留言版留言時,我們的回答總是簡單且衷懇的。我們成立這個酒店上班-酒店兼職-兼差如何達成人生的第一桶金,是想揭開這行制服店、禮服店、便服店神秘的面紗讓更多人瞭解八大行業的資訊,當然也希望招募到優秀的人員。所以我們的回答絕對是符合妳的期待。
[女孩們要入行酒店上班,請注意以下的重點酒店兼差不是一個複雜的工作環境?]
1.你是否真的下定決心了?!!在這裡上班職場須知 【酒店PT 】,有時必須承受些許心理壓力。心理壓力在於..外貌.手腕.應對.決心。絕大部分的女孩只會想到自己本身的立場卻沒有想到消費者的想法。不是每位女孩上班都一定能賺到錢,你決定賺多少,你又能學習多少。取決於妳的"態度"一旦下定決心,請收起無謂的想法,好好學習應該有的工作態度。
2.當你下定決心後,請注意...先約在公共場所(如麥當勞) 對談細節(要求對方提出負面因素 如會扣錢的事項有哪些)最少看三家店的環境(這樣才能知對方能力和自己多方考慮)切記千萬別第一天看環境就馬上工作(要回家多方思考再決定)有部分招募公關的廣告,寫上許多超高的金額利誘。事實上這些金額 真的是看個人努力而有所不同啊。不能說她們是講假的,但是沒有人一開始就能做到(那要很犧牲)。
3.注意自己的權益。薪資計算。(檯費的計算,領薪水的日期....諸如此類)公司經營的模式方法。(例如便服店或是禮服店)以上三點你都注意了嗎!你真的確定要入行了嗎!
這些你都注意到了,你也沒有隨便相信單方面說的話,切記多聽多比較,那麼你可以開始選擇你想去哪家店上班了。

梁爵 said...

八大職缺-酒店打工種類與坐檯內容(酒店上班|紓壓會館)

「禮服酒店」:
酒店應徵禮服店較適合無經驗的新人,而且沒有秀舞。
穿著以緞面、合身、開領、無袖的短禮服為佳。
工作內容以包廂氣氛熱絡為主,強調與客人間的互動,如唱歌、喝酒、桌面服務等(我們有專文提到)。
商務客層約占6~7成。不像便服店的條件要求相對較高,也沒有便服店「拚框」的競爭壓力。
「便服酒店」:
便服店的商務客更多,所以酒店工作公關們都非常自律,會用心投資自己與經營客人,也是各方面要求最高的酒店類型,除了體態、臉蛋高標準外,也講求談吐與手腕,公關彼此競爭激烈,生存難度相對較高,而坐檯模式與禮服店相同。
「制服酒店」:
制服店的消費客層較年輕也多元化,各式各樣的客人都有。
在制服店雖然不需要亮麗的外表,但酒店工作公關們妝感比較濃厚,制服以性感兩截式爲主,包廂服務強調主動與炒熱氣氛,客人作風比較親切、直接。
「紓壓會館」:與酒店工作不同的是,舒壓會館都是「一對一」在包廂內幫客人按摩。
因特有「預約制」,所以每位「舒療師」會培養自己的特色來增加客源。
另一優點是【不用喝酒、上班時段彈性、早班客源充足】等,在上班20天的情況下,不包括小費,基本薪資大約都在15萬以上。
服裝儀容
專業設計師打造彩妝、美髮造型,著風格時尚禮服。
註:台北市生意最好,但相對高房租與高消費會「吃掉」快3、4天的坐檯薪資。
<酒店小姐身體的負擔>:酒店職缺不能用上班族眼光看待,雖然可以自由排班,但身體狀況會影響上班天數,常態是一周上3~5天,但5天就夠累人了,尤其不會閃酒、又愛拚酒的公關來說,連續上4天之後可能就醉個1~2天。
喝酒熬夜是常態(生意好的時段在22~02點),與客人敬酒是禮貌,陪客人喝酒玩遊戲是「酒店小姐坐檯基本功」,遇到酒桌雖然可以婉拒,但相對減少上檯機會,所以喝酒是無法避免的(我們另有閃酒專文)。
酒店的「職業災害」如:客人在包廂狂抽菸(呼吸道問題)、空腹喝酒或混酒(腸胃問題)、穿高跟鞋扭傷、腿部撞傷瘀青等等(包廂空間有限、燈光不明亮容易撞到桌角)。
雖然可以自行掌握薪水,不想體力負擔大就一周上2~3天、想多賺點錢就上5~6天,這可以解決很多人的財務困難,若有急需也可協商「日領」。但酒店打工也像臨時PT班,沒上班就斷糧。有些公關月薪可以拚到10~20萬,那是取決於節數高低與身體狀況。
<酒店公關心理的負擔>:
酒店薪水雖然多,但環境容易吸收負面能量,如姊妹生活壓力下大哭、客人酒後失態粗魯、兄弟打架鬧事、幹部言語壓力等等。
除了面對有奧客會毛手毛腳外,所承受客人負面情緒的壓力更大,尤其部分奧客覺得「花錢就是大爺」,交談中充滿了輕蔑與不對等。長期接受負面能量也可能衍生心理疾病,所以找到正確的紓壓管道是必要的。
:
有些人對公關印象總是「沒讀書、私生活混亂」等負面標籤,不理解酒店的人往往是以「憐惜」來看待小姐,有些人只會口頭勸說「這行業不好」,卻沒提供其他實質選擇,她要怎麼離開呢?會到酒店工作的女生,原先選擇就有限,不是說走就可以轉身離開,然而真的離職只會產生更多問題,這些做不到的口號與建議就容易成為負擔。
:
有道是「歡場無真愛」,在酒店環境認識的戀人,9成以上沒有好的結果,但在此工作背後的空虛,總是讓女生迷惘,誤以為可以找到下半輩子的託付。
為何酒店公關容易與客人談感情(兄弟客與商務客)?因為自己的工作內容不好向外人說起。
加上與「兄弟客」的處境大多相似,同樣身不由己,可以互相體諒、視線也平等一些,所以容易走在一起。
而商務客總是想來「教育」或「念」公關,「幹嘛做這工作」等等,有時擺出高高在上的姿態來「說教」,即使與商務客熱戀且對方出手大方讓妳離開酒店,但雙方長期相處的不平等,加上男客忘不掉公關的酒店經驗,很容易成為分手的理由與藉口。
:
雖然八大與多數世俗道德界線牴觸,但業內多數人只想賺錢過生活,並無意傷害其他人。
而酒店坐檯不只是取悅,有時也撫慰客人的心靈,而服務人心的工作永遠不簡單,酒店工作是份專業,這份專業同時也接住許多經濟困頓、別無選擇的女人們,希望在夜生活裡掙扎求生的女人們,也可以抬頭挺胸、安心地生活著。
:
酒店高收入可以解決經濟壓力,但伴隨而來的負擔,需要在入行前想清楚,或是遇到疑惑、困擾時多找支持網路協助(如經紀人、家人、姊妹)。