Friday, February 23, 2007

Pricing - Time to Get Real

How many times can we say it? The property tax situation would not even be an issue if PRICES weren't so far out of line with income here in the Sunshine state.

Fortunately, the MSM is beginning to report on the problem with pricing. Why? Because the supply of idiot buyers (IBs) has just about dried up, and without the IBs, very few overpriced homes are selling. Ergo, the realtors are not making any money and (voila - we come full circle!) they've come to the same conclusion that we have: prices have to come down if sales are going to go up.
From Dick Hogan at the News-Press, an article relating this issue with it's effect on the commercial real estate business.

'A massive inventory of unsold homes in Lee County could bring bad times to both the residential and commercial real estate markets.

But real estate agents could help soften the blow by telling sellers to ask more realistic prices for their houses.

That’s what two experts told a sold-out audience Tuesday night at The News-Press Market Watch at the Harborside Event Center in downtown Fort Myers.'

With 23,000 houses and condos on the market in the county and the number rising, he said, the residential construction market is likely to slow dramatically this year as builders work through a backlog of homes ordered in better times.'

So, what's the connection between the deteriorating residential market and the commercial version?

'With 65 percent of industrial space occupied by people such as developers, subcontractors and suppliers for the residential market, D’Alessandro said, the commercial market could be hurt.

“The bottom line is fewer tenants,” he said.'

And though we haven't really addressed it much, what is the current situation with "work force housing" in Lee County?

'Also making a presentation Wednesday was residential broker Denny Grimes of Denny Grimes & Co., who like D’Alessandro writes a column on real estate for The News-Press.

Talking about the results of falling land prices, Grimes noted dryly that “the work force housing crisis is over” with houses in Lehigh Acres selling for less than $200,000.'

Well, if you think $200K is tolerable for "Mr. & Mrs. Ham & Egg", well...I would have to disagree. But that's just another symptom of the entire pricing situation.

'But generally, he said, the near future isn’t going to bring boom times for real estate in the county.

“Don’t expect the tide to start rising this year,” he said.

He did hold out hope that if real estate agents muster the collective will to talk tough to their sellers about prices, the supply of existing homes could be reduced more rapidly.

Too often, he said, agents soothe sellers with optimistic talk about additional open houses or other tweaking of sales campaigns.

“We all know what the solution is, don’t we? It’s called a price reduction,” he said.

Meanwhile, he said, things are bad and getting worse.

“In spite of what you want to believe,” Grimes said, “we’ve not hit bottom yet” and won’t until the inventory of existing homes starts to shrink.'

Enough said - it's good to see that our gospel is finally being heard.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

As goes Lee County, goes the rest of this state. If realt-whores want to make any money this year, they've gotta stop pandering just to get the listings.

See? This article is proof-positive that even greedy dumb-asses can learn things.

Anonymous said...

Never underestimate the stubborn-ness of people though. These realtors can talk till they're blue in the face - sellers still want 2005 peak prices. They'll only end up chasing the market down.

Anonymous said...

The Supreme Law of Stupidity says:

Sell Flood Insurance, and people will build in flood plains

Sell Hurricane Insurance, and people will build in hurricane zones...

ARE PEOPLE STUPID OR WHAT??

Anonymous said...

I can't believe the "head in the sand" mentality of this state. After each hurricane, they have to dig their head deeper. Well guess what? Eventually they're gonna hit the aquifer - then they'll have to pull their heads out of the dark recesses where they've been lodged and look at reality.

Bad things are coming.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

It is not the price, the question is have we hit bottom? A buyer does not want to purchase a depreciating
asset, and risk going "up side down" by catching a falling knife.
When real eatate is hated as an investment and is a home once again, then is the time to buy.

Anonymous said...

The U.S. saw a total of $4 trillion in new credit created last year. All that money you see out there has been borrowed.

Normally all that money would go to bid up consumer prices. It is not because of the U.S.' sickness.

All that free money (first fostered by Japan's ridiculously low interest rates, a rate that was just raised yesterday because it is clearly causing malinvestment) combined with globalization has created overcapacity. The latest capacity numbers show it now falling from already below average numbers. The U.S. has too much production in the world so producers can't increase prices. The U.S. has too many houses so the prices are beginning to fall. The U.S. has too much commercial real estate so REIT stocks are showing severe weakness. The U.S. made too many risky loans so the subprime mortgage market is falling apart. The U.S. has too many strip malls so the countryside is getting ugly.

All that borrowed money is now going into speculation because there is nothing left to build. It is going into stock prices, gold, commodities as the last flushes before the market says "we can't take anymore debt." Total U.S. debt is 3.5 times GDP, a level never seen before. The second highest level was 2.9 times in 1929. Total U.S. financial debt (excludes consumer debt) is 2.1 times GDP, the highest ever and up from one time in 1987.

The timing is uncertain, but logic tells us that this must end.

Anonymous said...

Hey Mike!!! How many is, too many houses that we have we got???

Answer!!! Many too many???

Can you count to 2.1 MILLION to many???

Let's see, if we sold one house a minute, how many minutes would it take???

>>> "ALMOST 4 YEARS""<<<<

Anonymous said...

Total debt saturation is now complete. The American consumer cannot absorb another single penny of debt. Helicopter Ben could stuff all the bank vaults in the country to the rafters with currency, providing an endless supply of liquidity, it would make no difference. There is no one left out there who can qualify to borrow it and pay it back.

Anonymous said...

I can tell you this, that I work in one of the major banks over here on the west coast of Florida, and we are very conservative about who we lend money too..We only lend money to people who will take it, and promise to pay it back someday. In the mean time, we charge interest on that money, and it pays my very hansom $300k year salary . We have a very significant size legal staff, which keeps the borrowers honest. Our moto has been "What's good for "America", is good for us."

Anonymous said...

Crazy,

You are still on the wrong path. No banking career here. Keep going:) My, you must be very jealous to be so curious about me.

Lizziebeth

adrin said...

I agree with the Flyingmonkeywarrior's comment.

Boise real estate

梁爵 said...

2020.05.09全國八大行業酒店工作本月9日停業滿1個月,小姐酒店S、經紀、業者無不「酒店上班苦哈哈」,八大行業有小姐甚至做起外送員,不過,行政院長蘇貞昌本月4日宣布擴大紓困,無保酒店PT工作者可領1萬元,且可當天申請,有酒店小姐衝去公所申請,但馬上被「打槍」。酒店打工小姐小荳說,日前看新聞說政府下令紓困加碼,跑去公所申請,但卻被刁難,須附上很多證明,例如提供戶口名簿、調查名下有無財產、家人有無財產、以往有無領過政府補助的失業救助金等措施,若有,就不符合資格。事後才知是今天開放申請,但公所人員給人的感覺就「霧煞煞」,不清楚申請資格,雖然她最後還是資格不符,空歡喜一場,但還是希望政府快提供更明確申請規定,讓受疫情影響的勞工安心。小荳說,自己從南部上台北工作,想賺高薪照顧父母,才到酒店上班,如今停業,目前偶爾接接飯局加減賺,但好像「臨時工」,收入很不穩定。
據了解,小姐屬經紀公司管理,但經紀公司並無真正公司行號,只是小姐領薪水的仲介單位,都是空殼,並非政府認可的公司;小姐及酒店經紀因此沒有工作證明,領薪方式也是現金,並無薪資條當作證明文件,申請有難度。酒店經紀人梁曉尊/梁小尊說,旗下小姐目前靠零星的飯局賺取台費,好一點的本身兼職美甲師,也有小姐白天當外送員加減賺,至少付得出房租、三餐有著落。酒店目前雖未開,小姐仍可透過飯局賺錢,業者也抓緊主導權,不讓獲利方式改變,不過再停業下去,規模小的酒店,不堪每月高房租及人事成本,恐遭併吞。

梁爵 said...

2020.05.12酒店、舞廳解禁酒店小姐的基本介紹跟工作內容開放有望!新冠肺炎台灣疫情緩和、穩定控制,中央流行疫情指揮中心昨日我在酒店上班的日子宣布,目前暫停營業的酒店、舞廳等酒店小姐一定有S?業者,在符合防疫安全條件下,八大行業可開放營業,且不受室內100人、室外500人人數限制。巧合的是,今日職場須知 【酒店PT 】剛好是酒店、舞廳停業滿月,指揮中心此話一出,相關酒店打工行業人士都很期待。記者實訪一名在北市中山區酒店工作的女公關軒軒,她表示若酒店真解禁,實質上生意一定會爆好,因為台商、業者都「忍很久了」。軒軒說,她所服務的地方為私人招待所,受酒店禁令也暫時歇業至今,這一個月來她都沒進店裡上班,與其他公關們大多轉戰KTV、卡拉OK或是飯局模式;而客層方面,多為熟客與幹部所介紹的友善客人,故在安危顧慮上較放心;但即便如此。收入仍大受影響,跟之前比少了六成,不過因她沒有家計負擔,故這段時間她也當做休息,更規畫了東部旅遊。而對疫情這段時間的感想?軒軒說,其實酒店業並不是四月時有酒店公關確診才受影響,而是台灣確診1月下旬有確診者後,2、3月生意就明顯下滑,因為「有錢人超怕死!」也擔心來消費後確診,很難對親友交代,故2月起收入就已下滑。軒軒也說,而酒店業是「連動」、最能反應「台灣經濟」的產業。經濟好時,來消費、甚至談生意的客人就多;而一蕭條,酒店、幹部、旗下小姐收入銳減,連樓下賣花、賣香腸、一整條賣衣物、精品的店家都受影響,是一層接一層環環相扣的。軒軒跟記者分享一個特別觀點,就是酒店停業這一個月時間,她的總收入雖大減,但是「客單」(顧客單筆消費)收入卻超高。她解釋,因為這段時間都轉戰如錢櫃KTV、卡拉OK等方式,客人消費、開酒遠比在酒店時便宜、小費也多外,收入部分因不用透過酒店營銷、幹部等關卡,少了中間抽成,故費用都是「實拿」,也算是這段時間的特別之處。

梁爵 said...

2020.06.20酒店小姐的基本介紹跟工作內容林森北路是台灣酒店重要商圈,過去上電視多在社會新聞版,實境節目《我在酒店上班的日子匠紫也可以》邀請脫口秀小天后龍龍,及Lala (蘇心甯)深入不敢來酒店上班-酒店打工的原因林森北路日式酒店及男公關店,不僅酒店上班-酒店兼職-兼差如何達成人生的第一桶金從中認識酒店小姐、男公關的工作實際情況,更談起家人間的心酸歷程。Lala進店前跟劇組人員直呼超級緊張,沒想到一進去脫口而出「酒店兼差不是一個複雜的工作環境?原來就跟唱KTV狀況差不多」,職場須知 【酒店PT 】現場一次叫4位男公關進房大玩遊戲,一路從烏龜烏龜翹、數字拳開始,一玩之下竟然大獲全勝,讓Lala現場心花怒放,直說第一次玩到這麼嗨。不僅如此,男模們為了逗Lala開心,更現場大跳熱舞起來,輪流面貼面的超近距離接觸,讓Lala現場直接尖叫到想找姐妹淘求救,玩一輪下來後更直呼,有種被捧在手掌心照顧的感覺。脫口秀小天后龍龍為了認識酒店小姐日常,特別情商日式酒店知名媽媽桑席耶娜及藝人夢多分享及訓練,一進門龍龍就先問「小姐賣不賣肉體?」席耶娜立刻嚴肅表示「可以被上的小姐不值錢,現場不准跟客人『喇舌』」,讓龍龍開眼界的表示,原來酒店裡販賣愛情模式的做生意方式太高明了!夢多在這次特別擔任「酒客」,跟龍龍大玩起鹹豬手、擋酒教學,夢多談起酒店,特別提到「早期來台灣,提到酒店時,都被人用異樣眼光來看,但其實在日本,去酒店是一種休閒,不是你們眼中像色狼一樣都是做A的,台日酒店文化真的差很大」,現場更因龍龍的萌呆及反應慢,差點被氣炸,也讓龍龍最後哭著說賺錢真難。

梁爵 said...

本土疫情延燒,台北市政府昨日公布9家酒店爆17人確診,副市長黃珊珊今(8日)說,又新增2例與酒店打工相關確診。市長柯文哲宣布,將對八大行業加嚴管制,除了工作人員應接種至少兩劑疫苗外,消費顧客也要提供至少接種三劑疫苗證明,酒店小姐若臨檢發現違規,將開罰業者3,000元至1萬5,000元,並計點後最重將下令停業。台北市政府下午召開疫情記者會,市長柯文哲、副市長黃珊珊、衛生局長黃世傑等人出席。柯文哲表示,因應酒店工作疫情要開始調整戰術,酒店上班八大行業不可諱言的是有好幾個縣市都發生感染狀況,這真的相當麻煩,為了防止一下子群聚太多,將開始加嚴管制。柯文哲說,首先,消費的顧客需打滿三劑疫苗,工作人員應至少打滿兩劑,若打滿第二劑超過3個月要打第三劑,必須確保顧客、酒店經紀的疫苗接種符合標準。到八大行業臨檢時,會要求業者提供證明,否則開罰業者,每次罰3,000至1萬5,000元,超過四次按次處罰,每次罰1萬5,000元,也許殺傷力不大,但可能會採用計點方式,並下令要求停業。全台各縣市陸續出現酒店公關群聚,台北市長柯文哲今在台北市疫情記者會宣布,將加強八大行業管制,若臨檢時顧客、工作人員沒有施打疫苗的證明,就會罰業者,從最低3000元開始罰,累計次數,第4次將會罰最高金額1萬5千元,若超過一定的次數,「就把你停業處理!」柯文哲表示,從好幾個縣市的感染狀況,八大行業的確相當麻煩,為防止八大行業造成太多群聚,將加嚴管制,顧客要打滿三劑,工作人員則至少要打滿兩劑,若打滿第二劑已超過三個月,酒店上班就要打第三劑,無論酒店應徵是工作人員或是消費的顧客,在疫苗上面必須符合標準。柯文哲強調,從現在開始,相關局處到八大行業臨檢時,將要求提供疫苗施打證明,若坐檯小姐、工作人員拿不出來,就會罰業者,從最低3000元開始罰,一直向上加,第4次就會是最高的1萬5千元,但罰1萬5千元可能殺傷力不大,我們會開始記點,超過一定的次數後就開始停業。柯文哲認為,八大行業酒店上班變成傳染群聚的地方,需開始嚴格管制,不管是工作人員還是顧客,帶好打疫苗的證明,違反規定將罰業者,殺傷力最大的是應該停業,原則上是一次、兩次都可以理解,總有時候會漏掉,但如果好幾次就是這家店管理出現問題,「就把你停業處理!」