Friday, March 02, 2007

A Lesson on Exotic Mortgage Lending

Today, I am going to discuss a key cause of the bubble here in Florida and throughout the country - the easy availability of loans that people truly couldn't afford in the long run (or never had intention of paying back).

In the supposedly altruistic notion of converting more people into homeowners (regardless of creditworthiness), all sorts of exotic instruments were employed over the past 5 years. They are collectively known as "sub-prime", and they include:

ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) - Typically start at a low introductory rate, and then 1 to 3 years later the rate resets to LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) + a small %.

Balloon Mortgages - A mortgage that must be paid in full within a set time, typically 5 years. Often used in cases where refinancing or sale of the property is expected before the balloon is due.

IOs (interest only loans) - Used in conjunction with ARMs and/or balloons, the homeowner only pays interest, and does not build equity during an initial trial period. This makes the initial payments even lower.

Negative IOs - Similar to IOs, but to further drop the initial payments, the homeowner pays less than the actual interest for the trial period. Thus, when the balloon and/or ARM resets, the total amount owed on the property has actually increased. As in all the other above-mentioned instruments, this is not a problem if the property has increased in value faster than the principal.

And the worst of all,

No-Doc (No Documentation required, aka, "Liar Loans") - once used in rare cases where documentation of pay history is difficult (self employed persons), the loan is granted without a credit check or verification of ability to repay. In exchange, this type of loan carries higher interest rates. For obvious reasons, this route is the easiest way to commit fraud, and that's exactly what happened.

It should also be noted that all of the above types of loans carry high fees, which go directly to the mortgage brokers who sold them. Finally, the vast majority of these mortgages are bundled up by the thousands and sold on Wall Street as MBS (mortgage-backed securities), thus freeing the brokers to sell even more mortgages and perpetuate the fee-generating machine.

Two of the largest purchasers of these MBS are Freddie Mac (FMC) and Fannie Mae (FNMA), both quasi-gov’t entities whose purpose is to increase American homeownership (and to make a profit along the way).

Back in the "olden days" (pre 2001), such exotic loans comprised a very small % of overall home-loan volume (5-6%). However, by 2005, it is estimated that 40% of all mortgages were underwritten with sub-prime/exotic riders in them.

All of this combined to generate a proliferation of mortgage companies, all pushing exotic mortgages to get the high fees and then passing on the "hot potato" loans into MBSs on the financial market.

It all worked great, especially as house prices skyrocketed, and valuations generated ever-increasing "paper equity". With so much credit available, people who had no intention of ever living in a house ("flippers" and outright criminals) were also bidding on houses, condos, and pre-build properties, pushing prices even higher.

But there was an issue. Every purchaser of an MBS bundle from these front-line mortgage companies puts various stipulations on the purchase - the most important of which is % of defaults (non-payment in the first 90 days). If this % of defaults (non-payment in the first 90 days) is exceeded, the front-line mortgage company is required to buy the defaulted mortgages back.

This issue transformed into a certified problem when it turned out that many of the flippers and fraudulent loan applicants never had any intention of making payments on their loans. Defaults, defaults, and more defaults.

Furthermore, as time wore on, the ARMs and balloons started to trigger, greatly inflating the payments that honest homeowners had to pay to keep current on their mortgage. Often, this increase in mortgage payment far exceeded the homeowner’s ability to pay.

This resulted in the default triggers being exceeded everywhere, particularly in the exploding-bubble states (Florida, Arizona, Colorado, California). Instead of being able to pass them onto other banks and securities, mortgage companies were increasingly getting "return to sender" on their crap-o-la loan portfolios.

The certified problem then metastasized into an outright disaster. As foreclosures started mounting (the foreclosure rate is still increasing as you read this), the smaller lenders began to implode, and the larger lenders have begun charging off huge losses.

And the worst part of the tragedy: people who thought they were living the American Dream are now experiencing a nightmare as their house payments suck their finances dry. Finally, they "throw in the towel" and get foreclosed on. Their credit ruined, they are pretty much denied the opportunity of owning another home for the next 7 years.

Okay, so we have a serious mess on our hands. You can almost here it on the PA system, "We need cleanup on aisle 3!". Our next post will deal with Freddy Mac's proposals to deal with the situation.

I just wonder if they are a "day late and a dollar short" on their response.


zippo said...

And don't forget the 100% zero-fee, nothing-up-front financing.

People who couldn't afford the deposit on an apartment could suddenly afford to buy an entire house.

That made a whole lot of sense, NOT.

alison--volusiaco said...

Hubby thinks we need to buy a house--I know I know--so I told him to start looking for mortgages. BOA who we used for our 1st home wanted to give him 80% first loan at 6.5% for 40-YEARS and 20% 15-year balloon payment at 9.5%.

What kind of crappy mess is that! Payment for 170,000 (which is very cheap for this area-probably won't find anything decent for that price) is over $1300 almost $1400 including tax & insurance.

Oh yeah--we also need over $9000 at closing for closing costs. WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fortunately, I think I talked hubby off that bridge. Still looking though. Emailed a FSBO guy of house we love, been on market for a year now (I posted about this house a few months ago.).

Just told him: love your house, can't afford what you're asking, know you paid $90,000 for it, how low will you go?

The market is crazy now. Prices are all over the place. This house:189,000; on market for a year. House 4 houses down: on market in Jan, 249,000. House one street over: 230,000. ZipRealty market analysis of homes in neighborhood that SOLD in past year: average 150,000.

Help me Jesus!

Geilt said...

This stubbornness to not move on price is a reflection of our countries leadership. Our president/VP isn't willing to budge on his policy no matter what congress/the public says. Sellers aren't willing to budge on price no matter what the public says is SANE enough to ask for. So insanity is inherent in our culture at this moment. Nothing moves until you pay what we say seems to be the typical approach. We like to live in Fantasy lands that have yet to come, while we let the present slip away into the sweet sweet torpor of oblivion.

I'm still holding out here waiting to buy a house. Everything I read and everyone I talk to says that its a terrible time to buy and prices are just way out of line.

Of course the markets representatives are going to lie, they are the ones that don't want the prices to fall. Predict positive outcomes and hope for a positive future. Although in this case their predictions and expectations are so far gone, that it makes me wonder...

A house is supposed to be a place where someone lives, makes their home, cherishes and raises a family.

Right now all I see people looking at houses as is another form of gold or trade. Why not just get a piece of paper with the word "house" on it and trade it back and forth until it is no longer affordable? Hmm...dont people already do something similar to that?

Give the houses to the people that want em to use em. Make a deal or something, for those of us planning on LIVING in our house as a PRIMARY residence for the next 20 - 30 years. We could be given the decent price of a house in the range of 100 - 200 k, as opposed to getting the 1 bedroom 1 bath 20 sqft shack for 500,000.

I've been wanting a house for the past 2 years now in Miami FL, and its so frustrating when you call up a small little house with a for sale sign and they say 500,000 negotiable, and you say ok...*click*

Oh, and as for open houses?

Who the F is going to even bother looking at a house if they KNOW they cant afford it? No Supreme dishwasher and Dryer package is going to take away for 350k+ price tag

CRAZY G said...

A man's got do, what he's gotta do...and for some that is to build houses...Don't try and stop that man, what ever you do!!!!

Glut of homes won't stop new starts

12:08 PM CST on Friday, March 2, 2007
By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News

Homebuilder Terry Woldt is worried about the number of unsold houses on the market.

But he'll probably be starting construction on more homes soon.

"I want to be prudent, but we can't sell houses if we don't have them," said Mr. Woldt, who builds high-end homes in exclusive Dallas-area neighborhoods.

The overhang of new homes puts builders in a pinch. Typically, they ramp up construction in the early months of the year to have houses ready for the busy summer market.

But if buyer traffic doesn't rebound, more starts will only add to the oversupply in some neighborhoods.

Homebuilders have already sharply reduced the number of homes in the pipeline. Dallas-area starts were down 33 percent in November and fell by 48 percent in December compared with a year earlier.

"There needs to be some discipline in the market," said Ted Wilson, with Dallas-based housing analyst Residential Strategies Inc. "And I think most builders are refraining from starting too many houses."

Even so, Mr. Wilson said, "some builders have way too much speculative inventory."

Builders say that banks have raised loan requirements and are limiting construction funding.

"The lenders aren't going to lend you any more than enough for two speculative homes," said longtime Dallas custom builder Bill Long. "They've really tightened up."

But builders also point out that if they don't start houses now, they won't have product to sell when buyers come calling.

Jay Wysong, who constructs houses in Dallas' M streets neighborhood, recently sold several of his completed homes. So he's preparing to start more.

"There is a lot of inventory," he said. "If I hadn't sold these houses, I wouldn't be replacing them.

"I just bought three more lots."

Other builders say they are reducing the number of vacant lots they hold because they expect to construct fewer homes this spring. Lot prices have been in flux in some areas.

"We have been reluctant to purchase any more lots until we see if lot prices are going to continue to inflate," Mr. Woldt said. "We are trying to sell one of our lots because I am concerned there are too many spec homes.

"But if I can't get my money out of it, I'm going to go ahead and get started on a house."

Nationwide, a record 175,000 finished, unsold new homes are on the market.

And Dallas-Fort Worth area new home inventories have now surpassed the numbers seen in the 1980s housing bust. Of course, the market here is almost twice the size it was in the late 1980s, Mr. Wilson points out.

More than half of the unsold new homes on the market in North Texas are priced at less than $200,000. But there are plenty of houses going begging in the upper price ranges, too.

Often builders don't plan on constructing a speculative house. Big builders are reporting that a record 30 percent to 40 percent of their contract homes wind up unsold.

"They start houses and get well into the construction and find the buyer cancels on them," Mr. Wilson said.

Residential Strategies estimates that sales in January and February – normally slow months – were off slightly from a year ago. The research is predicting that overall home starts will be off at least 10 percent this year in the D-FW area.

"It's an OK market," Mr. Wilson said. "But we are not out of the woods yet."

If there is good news in the housing slowdown, it's that builders report that prices of some construction materials are falling after years of increases.

Builder T.W. Bailey, president of the Home Builders Association of Great Dallas, said prices for some wood products are down from last year. Costs and availability of labor have also improved.

"But there are still items like concrete and copper that are up a little bit in price," Mr. Bailey said.

Builders are also paying higher transportation costs because of rising fuel prices. "I got a fuel surcharge the other day on some appliances I had ordered," Mr. Bailey said.

Alison--volusiaco. said...

I don't agree with your politics-but that's another blog for another day! I can certainly agree with your disappointment. You probably make at or above the median income and you still cant afford anything by a long shot.

I know I'm not entitled to a house.It's just sad, like you said to see them traded like commodities.And it's really sad what happens to neighborhoods.Our old neighborhood had a lot of rental properties and so does the one we rent in now.Of course these are $300,000, lose $500 a month even with a I/O mortgage, 'where the hell is Deland by the way?' rental properties!!

SKB said...

Great writing Jerry.


Why not take this opportunity in a declining market to save for a down payment and closing costs?

You also really need to save a minimum of six months savings for an emergency fund (I can not tell you strongly enough how important this is)
Take heed on what Jerry has written here and play it smart. It sounds by what you have written that you are not in a financial position to be making the biggest purchase of your life.
As great as home ownership can be, worrying about paying that mortgage or major repair if something goes wrong is not worth it. I can not tell you how much better life feels like to truly be able to afford something compared to trying to afford something.

It is too early to be contacting sellers and asking how low they will go. They are still in early labor and the major labor pains have not started yet.

Very good thoughts on your post and I completely agree with everything you have so eloquently said.

My own thoughts,

We are looking down the road to buy in the WPB area. We have been saving for five years and in this time with the hard work of my husband we have saved a lot of money. My dream home which we want to pay cash for was 150,000 a mere five years ago. My thoughts at this point wondering when that home will be priced back down there again. Or worse, WILL it be priced down that low again?

Will I have to change my plans and have to actually take out a mortgage for 150,000 to buy the same home?


Will I settle for a home priced at 150,000 knowing just five years sooner I could have gotten a brand new gorgeous home for the same money?
I doubt that I will want to take out a mortgage at any amount as; my goals have been set out for such a long time now. I really have been on a mission. My disappointment would be so great if prices do not come down 50%. 

These questions I know will be answered soon enough, but still after all of what I have read and seen there still sometimes is a small bit of doubt on the fact that the prices of homes will truly come back down to earth again.
I look at this like having faith in God, there is not a lot of proof but yet I still believe in him. There is more proof that housing has crashed before yet still, sometimes I look at this and question it.

Friends of ours just paid over 350,000 for a nice home (four years old) in the Treasure Coast area. They seemed to know about the bubble (not obsessed like me but still they knew and believed) yet they still bought at a huge price tag. A home which I believe is not worth any more than 150,000 to 170,000.
Yes they put down a lot of money and were able to get a good low rate etc…plan on staying in the house through retirement etc..but still WHY WHY WHY. I can not understand their thoughts on refusing to be renters until this is over.

I actually have my husband on the bubble sitting side now, which was a HUGE struggle for me. He was in that mentality of “its bad to be a renter”. Now he knows that it’s CHEAPER to be a renter right now. Phew, that took a lot of convincing let me tell you.

Have a great weekend folks.


CRAZY G said...

Some of these sub-prime borrowers are just plain trapped in the middle and screwed...simple as that.
People who took out 100% ARM mortgages, and can't re-finance them because of tighter standards will find little alternative to resolve their "predicament". In simple words; they just got 'dicked', and haven't realized it just quite yet..They will feel the heat,of the meat, after June 1st resets take effect for sure!!
Will I feel sorry for them..You'd have to be Crazy, and nobody wants to be like him, for sure!!!

Anonymous said...

Finally sold our house. Any ideas what we should pay for rentals of new construction in Clearwater and Palm Harbor areas? They seem to all want you to pay the mortgage for them.

Anonymous said...

Clearater/Palm Harbor? Good question, considerting there are very old and downright fugly sections of CLW and other very upscale newer homes in PH.

For a 1600 ft2 3/2/2, I would pay no more than $1500 for a newer model, down to $1000 for an older model.

Good luck - would love to hear your story as you search for a rental.

Anonymous said...

Your friends who overpaid (but sound like they were okay with overpaying) is a good parable. Just think what they could do with the extra money if they hadn't spent so much. Travel the world? Own a vacation boat? Spend more time with relatives & friends?

Others of us simply don't have the chutzpah to blow our entire budget on a house that's 99.9% likely to depreciate greatly over the next 5-10 years.

SKB said...


You are right, it is a good parable saying they were ok with the fact over over paying. I am happy for them that they actually are cool about it.
For me, NO WAY!!

CRAZY G said...


The 3 most recent sales in our huge development, have been MARVELOUS WONDERS TO SAY THE LEAST...

1. A unit sold @$150K, seller was asking $219K; seller had paid $150K.

2. A unit sold under $200K. Asking $215, seller paid $224K

3. a house sold at $405K, listed for $625K, seller paid $400K

It's happening right before your eyes, the market is crumbling, bit, by bit...

When the realtors get around to doing the comparables, it going to be looking like a Chit Hole...

Anonymous said...

Fremont closes its doors:

New Century, very possibly on the way out:

Anonymous said...

Rental update.... We checked out this complex 1.5 miles from my work in Clearwater. We get 1479SQFT for $1335.00. Includes W/D, basic cable, gym use( a nice one for a complex) plus more. We save about $700 a month each. I check CL each day, but people are still trying to get you pay the mortgage for them. The want 2500 for a crap box near the beach or under power lines.

Geilt said...

Alison Volusiaco-

My politics are...I really have none! haha! Just some bad tastes toward presidential issues here and there. I know it was a cheap shot, but symbolically, I see the reflection when I consider the image of the president that has been programmed into my mind by advertising, talk radio, and media. (Including random bush quote generator on my google home page...hilarious!)

I also feel as if im not entitled to a home. And it all feels as If I have merely suffered the detriment of poor timing. When houses were affordable, I was not even of age, or status (married) to consider anything like a mortgage and owning a home. As I finally came into the correct time and have the need, I find myself lost in a sea of numbers that far far exceed anything I could have ever hoped to afford. You can cut taxes, cut insurance, but you cannot make sane the insanity of the 300k+ price tag. It just doesn't work for me.

I know why these people are holding out though...and asking such ludicrous prices...because if they sold and moved somewhere they couldn't afford it. So they have to, and they become desperate, yet firm at the same time...This is a bad mix for a first time buyer with no history of investment in property.

Thanks for the compliment!

I am a religious scholar, and my faith in the existence of God, (not in the abstract symbological representation of a mental construct of divinity.) is lesser than thou. But I still do hope to God that he lightning bolts this Bubble so I can get on with my life and raise a family.

One of the things I fear most, is buying a house for 3000 a month, only for 3 months later a neighbor to move in paying 2000 a month. It scares the living daylights out of me. I would feel like garbage for the rest of my life (since i plan to only buy one home). I would want to cry in a corner for days and days.

If I did buy a 3000 dollar a month house, another feeling that would come up would be that I got screwed. Because that 3000 dollar a month house is about this big [___________________].

1 bedroom, living room, kitchen, bathroom optional for 350,000!! Great Deal! *disclaimer: house is built on 1000 year old graveyard and has a rat infestation (although I love gerbils!!)

I hope they give me a 100 dollar discount too, it would keep me one days payment away from economic (and probably physical)suicide.

But we all know in the where it gets the end is where you realize...holy shiza, that balloon payment wasn't just a weather balloon, but the frickin Hindenberg! OH THE HUMANIY!!!!

Fun with Numbers (not accurate, but theoretically interesting)

1+2+3 = 6

If I cant afford 3, how can I afford 2 and 1 to buy 6?

Im not going to pay 1 and hope to God no one notices 2 and 3 and expect to make 6.

Ahh but with creative financing, you only have to pay 3, while 2 and 1 become 20 and 10, and then...uh oh!!! I have to pay 33 for 6!!! Weee!!! Great Plan!

Not to mentions..any combination = to 6 is about a 300000 dollar home, which means we eat Ramen noodles for the rest of our lives.

Good Game Flippers...Good Game...

Can we please stop trading houses like Gold? They actually have a purpose besides being aesthetically appeasing to the eye, or an interesting value amount on paper.

This situation is like when people wear lots of expensive jewelery, its alot of money thats doing absolutely nothing. Hey, it may appreciate and sell for more, but that money could have been put to alot more use if given to charity or helping family, etc etc. Buy your kid a bike or something!

Alison--VolusiaCo. said...

My cousin just told me they bought a house in Oviedo. Older house (1965), 3/1.5, 1200 sq.ft, needs 'updated' bathrooms, windows, air conditioner, etc. Paying 215,000!

Asked them both 'can you swing that payment on one income' (she's staying home with new baby). They went on to explain their 80/20 financing and that they can afford it without adding monthly insurance and taxes. They plan to pay those yearly out of yearly bonus (hope he gets them) and money left over from sale of CA house (they already dip into it every month to make ends meet).

They both told me---can't afford it monthly but we'll be able to swing it once a year. I don't quite understand the logic of that. Wing and a prayer I guess.

They said the guy took their offer (10000 below asking) immediately and is paying 5500 in closing. They can't figure out why he took it so quickly. Any guesses?

fizbo said...

I've been through Oviedo many times. Some nice newer developments now, but still plenty of "old school" Florida cracker boxes populated with serious white trash.

Sounds like your cousin just acquired one of the latter. I wish her the best, but man. Almost for $200/sq ft for a fixer-upper? Ugh.

And this goes right to the heart of the topic of this overall post. What in God's name is the bank authorizing that much of a loan for an old, undersized POS house that is going to fall in value?

I'm quite certain the shareholders of the financial institution in question would shudder in their sleep if they witnessed such a scandal. This shouts "FRAUD!" on the part of the appraiser and broker, at a very minimum.

CRAZY G said...

Just a CRAZY guess, why the guy took it.


Paying $180/ sq ft, is just as stupid as doing 80/20 [100%] financing....

These people deserve to loose their money...
It follows an old saying, "that money always finds it's rightful owner"...These people want to give their money away, to some jerk that is screwing them, and he is probably laughing right now, all the way to the bank!!!!

Old saying; """Promise them the world, but get their money first""

People that do 100% financing are the cause of the problem NOT the resolution...
As I stated before, but Jerry would not post it because it might hurt somebody's feelings in Volusia county

SKB said...

Great thoughts again Geilt, “holy shiza, that balloon payment wasn't just a weather balloon, but the frickin Hindenberg!” That gave me a great LOL; it is refreshing to see a young person with a good head on his shoulders.

For me I was lucky back in 1985 when I was 19 years old, my father was in real estate and insisted that I buy and never rent. Can you believe that I only paid 40,000 for a BRAND NEW home back then? Granted it was in Central Canada in Manitoba but still, now that same home is selling for 150,000 as “a starter” I still shake my head over that the bubble didn’t escape Canada one bit…their pains are just starting in BC and Alberta and will be heading East.

To bad for those cousins of Alison, they really needed some financial guidance. It is no surprise though, so many people still do not have a clue what is going on here. I find it so odd that on the biggest purchase of ones life to not research the hell out of it first.

I guess the mass media hyped up “Time to Buy” campaign made an impression on some. Pity for them they never even knew to try to low ball their offer.


Geilt said...

I cant even buy a piece of flash memory at Best Buy without Researching which is the fastest/last longest/holds most data, and then making multiple trips back and forth from the stock area to the cash register realizing everything I'm trying to buy at Best buy can be bought for 40 % cheaper with no tax and free shipping on the internet....

I always leave empty handed, with a list of online shopping to do...Ah well!

I learned my lesson a few years back when i bought a keyboard at Comp usa for 250 $, went home, found it online for 89 $, no tax and free shipping. I took it back to store and had to pay a 15 % restock fee and STILL got it for cheaper.

Research is something people definitely need to do if they decide to buy a house. No way they should be paying outrageous prices for THE REST OF THEIR LIVES just because some Real estate broker swindled it to em well.

Its stupidity, insanity...

Its unfair, and its cruel on the realtor's part, unfortunately, most people my age (low 20's) don't look at price tags, whip out the checkbook and bam, done. Blame it on poor education, or carelessness. In the end the blame really rests on both the buyer and seller, the buyer for not researching and remaining in ignorance (most people say ignorance is bliss huh? Year right!) and the seller for taking advantage of youthful or careless ignorance.

I can only hope that prices fall back down to reality someday so I can finally have a small house and garden like I've wanted for a while now. Then I can think about starting to raise a family! Ahh the future looks good once those prices come down.

Or we move to a cheap place with low job market...

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