Monday, October 23, 2006
The Florida Room - Week of October 23-29, 2006
Got an excellent suggestion from lizziebeth from Orlando to create an open-air forum to post anything Florida-related here. Great idea, and so here it is - "The Florida Room". This is a great area to post any links, opinions, or articles you might have that would be good for discussion and/or future posts. Also, if you find any real moronic or greed-motivated quotes, this is an ideal place for them.
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33 comments:
Hurrah! This site has grown legs!
A year ago, I thought I was the only person who felt that the market in Florida was completely unstustainable. I was angry and a little bent out of shape. Now (with Jerry, Slow, Crazy-G, Lizziebeth, and all the rest of you!), I know that my perceptions were correct:
Greed HAS taken over this state like the plague, causing people to make some very bad financial decisions.
I don't know if we'll recover anytime soon, but it is fun to watch the spectacle.
I've another story for you from down the street!!!
Back in June, I think it was, there were two opens houses on this particular Sunday, and as we 'had' to drive past them, I asked my wife 'if' she wanted to see the houses....She said 'yes'....
As it turned out, the realtor, was representing two different sellers, on oposite sides of the street, and covering both....
We looked around the empty house and I had known previously, that they were FLIPPERS houses, and had the 'data' about them before we walked in....
Asked her the price, and she said $375k......I said it was a nice house, but a little expensive considering the size [@ approx $200/sq ft]...
She then said, that's what the houses were going for here.....
Then I asked, how they/she arrived at the price????
>>>>SHE SAID COMPARABLE HOUSE SALES IN THE AREA<<<<<
I said 'fine', that I understood that...."""BUT"",,,
This house and the one accross the street both sold for $250k, last month [to an 'investor']..
Then I asked...
""How did that figure in the comparable calculation""
WWWOOOOWWW!!!!
My wife grabbed me and pulled me out of there as fast as you can blink
Does anyone know why at certain blogs(the BusinessWeekley and Paradise Lost)don't allow links posted to connect? I've posted several links and Osceiola just posted. I wonder if there is a way around it. It's a pain to have to type in each letter.
Anybody care to respond to Lee over at the Business Weekly Hot Properties blog? Read his last post. What an idiot!
OOHH!!! P.S.
Both houses are still for sale...4-5 months later
I think they may have dropped the price....I'm not sure, as quite a few houses NOW have been reduced here, and some have been taken off the market....
The guy from W.Palm, with 4 town houses, and 1 single family has taken his off the market...
$1.3 million cash.....all sitting empty
The other guy from California, with 2 townhouses, and 3 single family houses,[$1.3 million total], has them all up for rent @ approx. $1500/mo... with taxes @2.5%, and a $1.0 million mortgage [I'd guess his interest @$60,000/yr] [ 1 is rented] [4 empty].....
All this, is just right here with 2-3 blocks...
Lizzie, Osceola:
Let me test this out, right here:
Liars, Thieves, & Cheats
Okay, it works. You just need to surround your link with the proper HTML tags.
For anyone who's interested, in order to post a hyperlink directly in your comments, click on Posting Links, and start at the section titled "Here's an example scenario".
Once you get it working, I suggest you save an example to a .txt or .doc file, and then copy and paste it whenever you need it in the future.
FYI, the "Posting Links" reference above jumps you to instructions on how to insert a link. To get back to these comments, just right-click on the screen and select "Back".
G,
Sounds like you've gotten under the skin of that realtor. For that, I must applaud you! Keep it up - we'll eventually get through their thick skulls.
check out this funny video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZFt46aQyQ8
If you go to You Tube, type in house price crash.
Hi Everyone,
I am a bubble watcher for the last five years. Back then the only information you could really find on the housing bubble was on MSN money.
It all started for us when we decided to accept a promotion for my husband to Canada. My husband works for the CBP and is also a reservist in the A/F. I had a dream several years before this, to save 150,000 over a five to six year period. To be able to live in Florida and pay close to cash for our dream home and have a small mortgage. My dream home was around 200,000 back then. So we got here and we started saving, buying CD's and watching our money slowly grow.
It's funny how you can never really plan even though you thought you did? Well first off, once we got to Canada and thank's to the strong dollar policy getting scraped, we saw the dollar plunge from 1.59 to 1.11 over the time we have been here. All along watching the housing bubble get larger and larger. For me I have been sickened over it. Not just for us but for everyone who has ever had a dream. You know the real ones? The ones that you plan for and save for and sacrifice a lot for. Not the get rich quick kind that caused this bubble in the first place but the good ole fashioned kind. My dreams included watching my kids be able to afford their first homes like mine which back in 1984 was a brand new 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 800ish square feet for 38,000. Now I look around and wonder how they can ever afford their first 500,000 (starter home) when they are ready to purchase. The way the bubble had been growing I expected the prices to be in around that when my oldest is 30 in 9 more years.
Well after five years and almost 100,000 now in savings we are a bit short from the mark, but that's ok. We had a couple of changes in our plans along the way. I guess the biggest one was my husband getting deployed to Iraq for six months. Well, he made it home safely and now we sit with 8 months left in Canada before our re entry back to the USA. My dream home now a stunning/staggering 410,000 (down a bit now to 389,000)
My heart is saddened for the real losers in all of this, the ones that bought thinking they would be priced out of the market forever if they didn't. The ones that actually believed their realtors and bankers and took that advice and took Reverse mortgages and the ARM's and the Stated etc...They were the ones that really were taken advantage of the most. I am sure there were plenty of little old ladies that were convinced to sell now to only have their homes re sold for thousands more than they received. The list could go on and on but the biggest losers really are our future generations, the ones not even born yet.
There will be no winners in this, I am not sure now how I will feel once I am able to afford my dream home again. Knowing that there were so many losers in this. It is truely a sad world we have become. I know we will recover from this in time, it is just such a shame that it was ever allowed to happen in the first place.
All of the 15 homes I am currently watching in Port St Lucie are empty except for 5 of them. The 10 others are owned by people from other States or other addresses in Florida. The prices range from 375,000 to 419,000. These same homes were selling for my price I wanted in 2001. I wonder what their prices will look like by the summer of 2008? Funny, it's like when the stores mark up their clothes and then advertise sale prices 50% to 75% off, there really is no sale at all just the illusion of a sale. Kind of how this bubble bursting will be. Just getting back to fair market value again.
Thank you for reading my story
SKB
SKB,
Great story - although the goal moved on you (between the exchange rate and the real estate bubble), it sounds like you're in a good situation with your savings.
That's the big question here in Florida: prices have gone SO FAR above what the median income can support, that it's hard to tell how long and how far down the prices will go as the correction continues. Most bubbble-watchers seem to think it'll be 5 years minimum before prices start rising again. Personally, I think the correction has barely started.
Also, don't just look at the price. You also must consider the "Save Our Homes" tax system, which forces you to pay more than just about everyone else who already owns a home here. Look at it as a "first time buyer's penalty", that you'll have to pay for years and years to come.
If you can stomach that, you'll do great in the sunshine state!
Thanks Sandi,
I am familiar with the Save our Homes system. In some ways it was something good created for the less fortunate.
Saying that it certainly has hurt the rest of the population.
If they wanted to really have a fair system why do they not tax based on income as well for Save our Homes ?
What about the millionaires living in their 1,000,000,000 homes for years seeing a mere 3% YOY increase.
I wonder with the prices of homes on the decline will we see the property taxes go down? What do you think? Probably not, it is such a nice cash cow for them now.
I also read that they are trying to change the SOH so if you are a part of it, it would follow you into your next home purchase.
Oh, well I really do love Florida, we had spent several years living in The Bahamas and spent a lot of time in Florida. It is a beautiful State despite the hurricanes, high property tax, hard to find house insurance and low salaries. It still is the most beautiful State with gorgeous weather and nice friendly people. I will love to call it my home soon.
Thanks,
SKB.
SKB reply;
"TRUST ME, when I tell you this""!!!!
This is || NOT ||| a housing bubble.....
It is in fact a liquidity bubble.. aka: a credit bubble!!!!
Case in point;
We were/are looking for a house, and the realtor took us to this very nice home here an Ormond Beach community.....
The seller was asking $439,000...It was a nice home, it had all the amenities you could dream about, "BUT" it did not have a oversize/ 3 car garage that I want.....we passed on it..
The next week it was sold, for $434,000....
>>>>> NOW HERE"S THE POINT OF THE STORY <<<<
The buyer took out an 80% mortgage ""PLUS"" a $25,000 HELOC loan.....for a grand total of $400,000....
So, the simple answer is, "IF" you want to be indebt up to your arse, for the rest of your life, be my guest....
For those that say...."Real Estate can ||| ONLY ||| go up""""
I ask.....How is it then, that in Japan, real estate has gone down 16 years in a row....
Noted stock market guru, Richard Russell says:....
""Debt, is a synthetic short on the dollar, and when it turns, people will be clamoring for $DOLLARS$ to pay-off their debt"..
My advice is HOLD YOUR DOLLARS....
CDN's are just fine...better than $USD$.....
We're sitting on the side lines, waiting and watch just like you....
I've wondered the same thing as SK, When we do finally purchase a home, let's say the current tax value is $500k and we purchase for $300k will the new value take hold or will you continue to pay on the higher value. Good question SK, any answers out there????
youtubelink
just trying to get the links to work.
Yeah it works! Thanks Frank!
I just don't get how idiots like Lee over at the Business Weekly Hot Properties blog can think that real estate is still going up! Check out this story my husband sent me.
FannieMaeworried
Possible asnswer to taxing question????
I noted, that here in Volusia County, Florida, that the tax 'ass-axe-cer' determines whether it is a "qualified, or non-qualified" transaction......
"IF" it's 'qualified...then, what ever the sale price is, "IS" the determining factor....
Nice story about Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, Liz. Those two entities have been keeping the whole mortgage system running like a well-oiled machine. 2 problems now:
1. The "oil" they've been using for this machine has a short term life (ARMs/HELOCs) with highly explosive properties. Combustion could occur at any time.
2. The "machine" has cranked out too much product. Funny-money loans over-funded the construction industry and now there is far more inventory than qualified buyers.
Add 1 plus 2 and you get serious problems.
And, as far as taxes go - even if the evaluations go down, you'll still pay more than everyone else who's been living in the neighborhood. Unless the values drop to less than what THEIR (the beneficiaries of SOH) homes are worth. Of course, if that happens, there's going to be a lot more problems than real estate.
Another 'true' story...this one about Palm Beach county....Some long time friends of ours, [coming over to visit this weekend], moved to the Villages in central Florida...
They felt 'certain' they could sell their house in a snap down there, and so contracted to have a house built up there, and moved in this spring....
They put their townhouse on the market, pricing it the 'lowest' price up in their subdivision.... @$359,000....
Fianlly after 6 mos or so, they got an offer, which they accepted, and headed for closing.....just before closing, the buyer backs out....saying that homeowner insurance was way too much......they had been paying $2200/yr, and the new buyer, was quoted $5000.......
IT NIXED THE DEAL!!!!!
The guy liked the house, and the neighborhood, and it was within walking distance to where he worked, and .....
BESIDES....they NEEDED the money [cash flow]...CUZ, they borrowed against the equity to buy up there in the villages.......
Taxes in Palm Beach County run approx. >2.5%... that would equal, approx $8750.....throw in $5000 insurance.... " THAT'S' nearly $1150/mo expenses, and you haven't even bought the house YET!!!!!
Soo!!! They rented to the guy, for the moment...and for the moment everybody is happy!!!!!
Another 'true' story....
Saw an add, this Sunday, for a nice house in Halifax Plantation...[Ormond Beach, ext 278 I-95]..
Add says it's got a "Florida Basement".....and 3 car garage......
WWOOWWW!!!! Just what were looking for....
Head over there..nice house ...."BUT"...60 foot lot...neighbors right there so to speak.....House was listed for $369,000...nice house "BUT"...you know????????????????????
Go back home, and bring up the realtors website.....
Low, and behold....the same house is for rent for $1600/mo.....
"IF"....I'm not 'misteakin'...houses should rent for 1% of the value......
e.g. = $369,000 x 1.% = $3690/mo....
They're asking $1600.....
Somebody is getting a haircut for $2000/mo
Does any of this make sense???
NOT TO ME!!!!!
P.S. Florida Basement is a crawl space above the garage!!!
Okay guys. Need your help over at Business Weekly Hot Properties Blog/Is Florida Housing A Bubble. They are hammering me. The Blog wouldn't post my response to Lee. I don't know if it's because I was too rough on him or because I had around 10 links to various periodicals supporting my side. Worse yet, Tricia's back!!!!!!!!
Hey Frank, do you know how to post a link over at Hot Properities. I tried doing it the same way over here, but it didn't work.
Startling new development: from Miami Herald
The Miami Herald. “The state-run insurance pool is getting ready to move second homes, vacation homes and most investment properties off its books. An insurance bill passed in May requires Citizens Property Insurance to stop offering windstorm coverage to non-homestead properties after March 1, 2007.”
“The one exception: Lower-value rental properties that are rented will be grandfathered in. These properties must be valued at under $200,000 and have a tenant with a signed lease for at least seven months.”
“If owners of non-homestead properties can’t find coverage from another insurer, they can stay with Citizens. However, they will be charged a 25 percent surcharge.”
“Nearly half of the 924,578 properties where Citizens provides hurricane insurance are in South Florida. It covers more than 1.2 million properties statewide.”
===================================
Flippers are going to be squeezed again....this time both cheeks of the butt!!!!
A little anal retension is going to coming due next year!!!!!
Startling new development: from Miami Herald
The Miami Herald. “The state-run insurance pool is getting ready to move second homes, vacation homes and most investment properties off its books. An insurance bill passed in May requires Citizens Property Insurance to stop offering windstorm coverage to non-homestead properties after March 1, 2007.”
“The one exception: Lower-value rental properties that are rented will be grandfathered in. These properties must be valued at under $200,000 and have a tenant with a signed lease for at least seven months.”
“If owners of non-homestead properties can’t find coverage from another insurer, they can stay with Citizens. However, they will be charged a 25 percent surcharge.”
“Nearly half of the 924,578 properties where Citizens provides hurricane insurance are in South Florida. It covers more than 1.2 million properties statewide.”
===================================
Flippers are going to be squeezed again....this time both cheeks of the butt!!!!
A little anal retension is going to coming due next year!!!!!
Lizziebeth,
I posted some figures over at the BW blog yesterday, and I still don't see the post. I don't think they were inflamatory in any way, so I'm guessing that noone is moderating it now. Might be a dead blog at this point.
One thing for sure - Lee, Tricia, and Pamela (who could very likely all be the same person) are all either:
1. Unadultered idiots who don't read the paper nor watch the news. Since they are on the BW site, that doesn't make much sense, so the only other alternative explanation is that they are...
2. Seriously screwed owners who are sitting on some bad real estate.
In either case, they are 100% laughable in their lame attempts at explaining why it's a great idea to buy in Florida right now. Especially with the new FAR report, things are really looking DOWN. Enjoy these morons - save their posts for the future so you can laugh again, throughout 2007 and 2008.
Hey Paradise. They did edit some of my posts. They took out the links to various reports. Hopefully they will find them helpful in future articles. They did leave my Youtube real estate crash link. I'm now called the Newspaper Reading Desperate Housewife. That is my new screen name! I like it, it's quite catchy! They are like a bad car accident! I can't help but looking at what they have to say. Worse yet I can't wait to say something back! I'm having fun at their expense. I can't wait to see what Lee has to say about his home town newspaper reporting the state of housing in Palm Beach!
KBOMAC, I'd love to read the Mullet Wrapper!
KBO,
Yes, I did read that same Money article, and I immediately scratched my head, and thought, "HUHHHH?". Whoever wrote that article is completely out of their mind. Maybe we can locate an e-mail there and let them know with a few facts & figures about the real deal down here, vero included.
NRDH formally known as Lizziebeth,
Yes, I see they finally displayed my post yesterday. We'll just have to keep hammering these screwed owners until foreclosure hits them and they get their computers taken away from them.
;^)
Happy Friday, all!
- Jerry
Add my name to the list of 'believers'. I've been looking at NE FL since 2002. Just sold in NYC and will move down and rent. (Thx Crazy G. for the rental link)
This market is unsustainable. Period. Everyone thinks the Boomers are coming down on their white horses to save home prices. Ha! Just another NAR/FAR piece of propaganda.
Once I began to look at how real estate is financed, with Fannie Mae, and MBS, etc., there is no way out for this market bubble. It really is a credit bubble as much as a RE bubble. Gordo
I was doing a search for "Florida Real Estate Bubble" and came across this blog.
I hope this forum gains traction as it may be an interesting "ride" down south. I am actually from Ormond Beach (NE Florida Coast) and have been eyeing a return.
Unfortunately my business (and my family) is in Atlanta and it has taken me a while to get to the point to where I can start considering a move back down until now.
So I've watched my little sleepy town go crazy for the past 5 years. I had dreamed of living on the intracoastal back when you could still find a house for under half-million back in 2002, but now it is just sick.
Anyway, mixed emotions as I am pleased to see prices coming down. For speculators, I don't have any remorse. All investments have risk. I feel somewhat bad for the famies who jumped to a larger house (thinking they had to move or else) while thinking they could sell their old one quickly (a couple of friends of mine). And now they sit on two mortgages.
Anyway, I'm a year away from being able to relocate and what happens, happens.
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