Tuesday, February 27, 2007

It's the Inventory, Stupid!

To say that we're overbuilt in the Sunshine State would be an extreme understatement. With this, you could say that Palm Beach is the poster-child of the situation. From Linda Rawls at the Palm Beach Post.

'First, the good news from housing consultant MetroStudy:

• New-home starts in Palm Beach County hit a four-year low in the last three months of 2006. They dropped 62 percent just from the fourth quarter of 2005.

• Total inventory - including model homes, finished vacant homes and homes under construction - fell to a four-year low in the last three months of 2006.

• Housing supply declined 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006 compared with the same period in 2005.

Decline, decline, decline, decline. This is the good news?'


Hey, it beats the alternative. Though a 4% decline from record levels is not likely to cause a sea change in the housing market.

'Yes, in these topsy-turvy times - when it's quite possible to be "upside down" on your house (to owe more than it's worth) or to lower your asking price by $1 million and still not get an offer - declining housing starts, construction and inventory are all good news; signs that the distressed new-home markets in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast are trying to recover.

Any recovery, however, could well be postponed into the second half of the year. Most analysts don't even agree on whether the market has hit bottom.'

I don't know exactly why, but it appears the builders are much more bearish on the market than the realtors. Granted, the realtors aren't required to tell the truth because the NAR (National Ass. of Realtors) isn't a publically traded company. If it was, a few things known as the SEC and Sarb-Ox would cause the NAR to provide forecasts more closely aligned with that of the builders (i.e.; truthful).

'Just last Thursday, luxury-home builder Toll Brothers Inc. said its first-quarter profit dropped 67 percent due to hefty write-downs and other costs, and Chief Executive Robert Toll said "there are (still) too many soft markets."

The inventory of existing homes, which was up 71 percent Palm Beach County alone in December, may grow as "re-listers" - people who couldn't sell in 2006 - are likely to try again in the spring. And analysts expect a further uptick in the region's new-foreclosure filings as high-risk borrowers continue to default on loans and lenders tighten credit standards.'


More foreclosures = More distressed inventory

Ergo,

More distressed inventory = Lower Prices

And to continue our boolean logical progression,

Lower Prices = More Sales

And finally,

More Sales = Lower Inventory

But we're still at the very beginning of this clearance process. The article continues with a description as to how this situation was created.

'Many of those borrowers were investors who artificially pumped up demand - and prices.

"Builders ramped up production to meet surging demand during the housing boom," said Michael Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter. "But it turns out a big chunk of that demand surge wasn't 'real' demand.

"It was investor demand - people buying up one, two, three or more homes at a time to flip, rather than people just looking for a place to live."

That artificial demand is gone now, Larson and others say. Investors have pulled out of the market, causing new-home sales to plummet.

In Palm Beach County, new-home sales dropped 36 percent in just one year - comparing the fourth quarter of 2006 to the same period in 2005 - according to MetroStudy in West Palm Beach.

Further proof the local housing boom has gone bust: Palm Beach County buyers closed on only 976 new homes in the fourth quarter of 2006 - down drastically from its boom-time peak of 3,123 closings in the third quarter of 2003, MetroStudy said.'


The situation is not pretty, and much more bad medicine is in store.

Full Article

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

If we had artifical demand, such as, Mr Larson said;

Do we now have artifical supply??

You mean, that all those houses really don't exist, except on somebodies balance sheet.

Anonymous said...

You can hear the drums in the distance, and they're slowly getting louder.

Too many houses chasing too few buyers.

Watch out below, people - we're in for a rough ride.

Anonymous said...

Jerry said; "I don't know exactly why, but it appears the builders are much more bearish on the market than the realtors."

That maybe because they have a significant amount real money invested in their business.
RealWhores, [and I know a few like myself], are just a bunch of skimmers & leaches, feeding off the public, and will say anything to make a buck..

Anonymous said...

We really need to push for oversight of the Realtors, because the instances of lying, cheating and fraud goes unchallenged. A lot of stupid people rely on their "really nice" realtor.

Anonymous said...

Trying to be nice to a bunch of jerks, that post on here, really irritates me to say the least.
How do you think I feel when I'm dealing with a jerk, that I absolutely need to sell a house to,and he turns around and walks the other way!!!
Hey BUBBA!!!, yah wanta buy this house???

Anonymous said...

Just let me say this. The trouble with you people is, you have no idea how expensive it is to run a scam. I didn't want the Hummer, my impotent husband wanted it, so he could drive his buddies around in it, and show off..Then I had to get a boob job, and a face lift, and a new-dooo...Finger nails,,the whole works, [yah that to..got it tightened]. Have you any idea how much all that cost these days with inflation the way it is..What's a girl to do??
So, when some jerk calls to go look at houses, I've got to tank up the Hummer, [90 bucks, buster], and try to make the 'big show'.. right.
So we're driving around, and this guy gets hungry, as I'm rubbing my beaver, cuz it so hot down there.
Anyway he asked me to pull into a Pizza Hut drive thru....You know the jerk, didn't even to offer to eat me or buy lunch...
So, as it turns out, he didn't have anything to do that day, and his wife had gone to the beach, and he thought, that he waste a little time looking at real estate.
Just one of them G.D. snowbirds, that P. you Off...
If you think this job is fun, jerk-off, stop by, and I'll park my Hummer on you!!!

FL - Paradise Lost said...

Notice to all readers and posters:

In the name of civility, I am reluctantly taking the step of moderating comments. With this, I will have to personally approve every comment for publishing. This will result in a delay for posters to see their on-line thoughts - no fun but necessary!

That said, I will not reject any comment as long as there are no nasty personal attacks within.

Sorry it had to get to this - I guess it's a fairly common thing.

Anonymous said...

Jerry, I glad to see you are stepping forward to clean up this board.
A few of the poster here have made it uncomfortable for many of us to post here.
See above.

Thanks Jerry!

FL - Paradise Lost said...

SKB, got your message - thanks.

We need unity to get the word out!

Anonymous said...

POOOOOOOOFFFFFFFF your equity has disappearred.

Lots of this happening.

Anonymous said...

Jerry;

You missed the article about Freddie Mac banning subprime mortgages. Effectiveley cutting off one category of buyers.


Of course your not going to post this, but your blog is really dead when you have jerks that can only say POOFFF...

I really do wish you better luck, because I don't really see anything that makes people want to come back

I've seen other blogs, where there a NO respondents. I then ask myself, why bother!!!!
Many of the articles you post are from the newspapers, and they have their own blogs. So why bother???

Most of the comments are short and idiotic to say the least. And if I berated them because of that, it was my saddistic enjoyment of making jerks look stupid...

Like my dad used to say:

It's a great life if you never weaken

house for sale Philippines said...

What an experience lizziebeth. Informative and interesting but dont pick on the estate agents : )

Deirdre G

梁爵 said...

2019.09.05各地酒店工作坐檯小姐依照工作地方/所在地區不同,此一酒店兼差職業名稱各異,但工作內容相差無幾。
華人地區大學生/上班族酒店兼職又稱陪酒小姐、陪酒女郎、伴舞女郎、女伴唱等,在香港她們的正式職銜是夜總會女公關,俗稱酒店小姐、舞小姐、舞女等,在中國大陸90年代產生了三陪小姐、三陪女郎或簡稱三陪(陪飲、陪夜宵,陪睡)這樣的俗稱。台灣稱為酒店小姐、舞女、酒家女等。在香港會把提供性服務的坐檯小姐俗稱為木魚,不提供性服務的則俗稱為金魚[1],源自粵語俗稱性交為「扑嘢」,而「扑」本意是擊打,木魚是可以「扑」的而金魚是不能「扑」的。
日本知名酒店經紀梁小尊/梁曉尊學術分析
日本稱坐檯小姐為俱樂部孃(キャバ嬢)。她們的主要工作是陪客人唱歌、跳舞、口交、顏射(精子射在臉上) 、喝酒、聊天等,雖然一般不可以提供性服務,但容許客人稍微撫摸身體或親吻臉頰。少數知名的俱樂部孃在當地社會上會有相當地位,除了一些有機會進入演藝圈外,更有人獲委任為市觀光大使和成為暢銷書作者的特殊情況。


梁爵 said...

2019.10.11 酒店上班類型多,酒店工作求職者尋職時不一定都能了解職務內容,台北知名酒店經紀公司為大學生、上班族酒店兼差就業通特別製作影片,邀請八大行業職場酒店小姐闡述工作甘苦並給予尋職建議,盼助酒店打工求職者找到適合工作。台灣社會有許多職業,許多求職者往往不瞭解酒店工作內容前往求職,才發現與想像中不同。知名酒店經紀梁小尊/梁曉尊指出,求職者常嚮往看似光鮮亮麗的工作,但其實這些工作背後,卻往往有著難以想像的辛苦。為了避免在學大學生以及上班族兩大族群渴望酒店兼職求職者對職務期待有所落差,八大行業酒店經紀公司特別規劃製作「框出陪睡(性交易)」職業介紹影片,透過拍攝各行各業職場酒店小姐一日的工作內容,讓對這些職業有興趣與志向的求職者及大學生新鮮人更了解八大行業酒店上班產業趨勢與職務工作內容,做好求職前的準備工作。

梁爵 said...

2020.07.03酒店小姐的基本介紹跟工作內容酒店小姐去酒店上班都一定要出場接s嗎?我在酒店上班的日子告訴你八大行業的真相!
許多來酒店應徵的小姐都一定會詢問,請問: 到酒店上班當酒店小姐就一定要出場陪睡接s嗎?其實現在的酒店已不像大家刻版印象中的不人道。不敢來酒店上班-酒店打工的原因1998年以前到酒店上班的小姐客人看上了酒店小姐想帶小姐出去,酒店小姐上班通常會取什麼名字?店家確實一定會強迫小姐陪睡出場接S。
現在是文明的時代也是Google網路搜尋資訊的年代了! 酒店兼差不是一個複雜的工作環境?酒店的環境變化很大,由以前傳統制度酒店小姐去酒店上班都一定要出場接s嗎?演化改為人性化管理,也就是因為酒店業者增多各家【百家爭鳴】酒店競爭大,各家酒店業者透過【開放自由管理方式】,來招募更多的酒店小姐。
所以現在的酒店也不會像電影/電視連續劇一樣,強制小姐一定要跟客人出場,現在酒店上班將酒店小姐出場的方式改為小姐個人意願,客人要帶小姐出場時會告知小姐要去那裡,只要小姐不願意跟客人出去店家沒人能逼妳,有些酒店只有規定小姐出場只需陪客人到客人想去的地方(例如:吃消夜 續攤 錢櫃 夜店 )當然也會告知雙方(有床的地方不能去 例如:妳家/客人家/旅館/飯店/辦公室)苗頭不對可立即離開。
也不可能要求小姐跟客人出去就一定要接S,當然也會有部份小姐因為想賺取更多的收入,而跟客人私下交易自已接S,所以酒店小姐到酒店上班出場接S完全屬於小姐個人行為,也不必擔心說到酒店上班就一定要出場或接S的。(我們絕對不會去勉強妳,我梁曉尊也不願意強迫小姐 做她不想做的事。)
每個行業都很辛苦!賺錢的工作沒有一份是輕鬆的,但我相信每個人都有她的底線(尤其是女人)。你們將來都是有夢想的是會嫁人的,不需要這麼犧牲。