Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Yet Another Faulty Forecast

Similar to the Hillsborough County Schools blunder (see post below) on expected student population for 2006-07, the NOAA is now predicting fewer tropical storms for this season.

"Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday said they now think this hurricane season will produce slightly fewer tropical storms and hurricanes than they forecast in May."

Now, for those who are counting, we've only had 3 so far this year - as opposed to 28 for all of 2005's season. So, we're way ahead of the curve, right? Not so fast, my friend....

"Three tropical storms have formed since the season's start on June 1. None became hurricanes. However, the most active part of the season runs from mid-August into October."

And really, the decreased forecast seems like a "drop in the bucket" (excuse the pun), really.

"NOAA's new forecast reduced the number of tropical storms and hurricanes by one from its May prediction. Forecasters now expect 12 to 15 tropical storms and seven to nine hurricanes."

I wonder how our good friends in the homeowner's insurance business will treat this news. (I'm picturing nerds in Hartford and NYC hi-fiving each other and planning their next exotic vacations with the bonuses they'll get from record profits this year)

Full Link: Lowered Hurricane Forecast for 2006

12 comments:

DaveNJax said...

Cancel all appointments - I'm moving to Florida! :)

North_Pinellas said...

Guess that leaves all the Pasco county folks still "sunk in their sinkholes". Citizen's Insurance - what a beautiful monster!

Basic_Living said...

Can't wait to see the letters in the mail next year,

(from ABC Insurance)

Due to unrelenting greed based on false assumptions by our bean-couters, we mistakenly dropped you from our coverage. Please, please, please come back - we know not what we do.

Surfin_FLA said...

It's all in the cards for a mild summer - enjoy it!

davenjax said...

Mild in what matter? It's f-ing hot out there!

(okay, I know what you really meant: mild, as in "few storms")

surfin_fla said...

I'm not a gambling man, but I'd really be curious to see what the gambling sites have set for "over/under" on the total # of storms and/or hurricanes in the Atlantic for 2006.

My guess:

15 named storms
6 hurricanes

Anonymous said...

Just wanted to say Hi and Good Luck. Learned of your blog via Bubble Meter Blog.

4 th gen fl bubble watcher said...

Glad to see Florida getting some attention in blogger world, it has been overlooked in leu of LA, AZ, NY and DC.
I will visit often.

FL - Paradise Lost said...

Thanks, Anon and 4th. Was out of town (25th class reunion) over the weekend, so didn't get to post lately.

Will keep this forum going as long as people stay interested - the market is crazy in this state (and so is anyone who buys right now!). :^)

Anonymous said...

Can they really be called "hurricane experts" if they got the original estimate wrong?

Should'nt the headline read "Hurricane Experts have no idea how many storms there will be this year".

surfin_fla said...

"Hurricane Guessers"?

"Hurricane Guessperts"?

"You-woulda-gotten-a-better-idea-playing-Ouija Experts"?

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