Friday, October 27, 2006

Florida Inventory - Plenty to Choose From

With the latest reports from the various realtor organizations around the state, we now have record inventory. Here now the numbers for the major markets, with months supply of inventory:

Tallahassee - 9 months
Jacksonville - 10 months
Orlando - 10 months
Palm Beach/Boca - 11 months
Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater - 15 months
Miami-Dade - 18 months
Sarasota/Bradenton - 23 months

(Months supply is calculated by dividing current supply by the latest (Sept 2006) sales. It represents how many months it would take to sell all the current inventory. Statistically, an average home would take half this time to sell.)

So, my fellow citizens, with these figures in mind:

  • Do you see a continuing increase or decrease for 2007?
  • Is this record inventory due to spec-u-vestors bailing out, or simply too high of prices?
  • Do the sellers get fed up and take their homes off the market (hoping for a return in demand)?
  • If it does get worse, how much worse? When do we hit bottom?

54 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think it will continue to drop through at least the first two quarters of 2008, Does anyone have an opinion on single family waterfront prices, will they be hurt more or less in a decline?

Crazy G said...

Buyers & Sellers are seperated by """REALITY""".....

Really,high home prices,
Really high Taxes, based on prices
Really high Homeowner Insurance

It's REALLY, just a turn-off...

Want to get turned on again.....
Really low prices would do it...

UNFORTUNATELY; the most prevalent contributor to declining home prices is a major recession/depression....
And the scales may be tipping just that way, as the GDP was a paltry 1.6% increase in 3rd quater....
Factoring in 'inflation'...we may 'already' be in a recession, and not even know it yet!!!!

THIS GOING TO BE A LONG HAUL...THRU 2007/2008....AND MAYBE BEYOND???? Your guess is as good as mine.....
>>>>This is NOT going to be easy<<<

++++||||| THERE WILL BE TEARS |||||++++

sandi said...

Waterfront? There are so many variables - especially depending on location (on the beach, on the canal, on a river, on a lake, or on a pond). But then again, insurance costs are skyrocketing for anything that's flood-prone. It's a tough call, but I would say prices for SFH waterfront should hold up better than the rest of the inventory. That doesn't mean they won't fall, though! :)

Anonymous said...

Tears for Fears!

(that your "can't miss" Florida real estate investment is already under water and sinking like a rock!)

Newspaper Reading Desperate Housewife(NRDH) said...

A month or two ago, the either the Tampa Tribune or St. Pete Times, ran an article on foreclosures. The picture for the article, was of a beautiful Clearwater, waterfront property once owned by Lisa Marie Presley. It was bought by a group of investors and went into foreclosure. I bet even the waterfront homes will take a price drop thanks to greedy investors.

Crazy G said...

|||| WATER FRONT |||| you say!!!!

Most of the developers/builders dredge out ponds, and use the dirt, to get the house " X " feet above the water line....so they can comply with code.....

Then the SOB's charge you a premium, to be on the water, which they could not sell you, if they hadn't dredged....

That is what you call a gimmick, for selling dirt, on a man made pond [aka..water front]

Dumb SNOW BIRDS come down here and buy from the wheedler's who sweet talk them, by telling them prices can only go up, and Florida is running out of DIRT....

Anonymous said...

LOL, I will come back and post under my name, but this post might attract "realtors" eeeeeeeeek. You are right, they call small mosquito ponds "waterfront" we moved here about 6 mos and are leasing a canal ocean access NFB house, every canal near us has many many sales signs, NOTHING is selling and it seems to me the price reductions are worse than houses that are not waterfront, but I hope to hear from others to confirm, at this point I think we will rent for at least another year, as much as I want "my own house" again, this Blog has been very interesting and helpful (and funny) thank you all

Anonymous said...

Dirt??? It all looks like sand to me. hahahah -=grin=-

Nearly all of the people that I am seeing move to the Central Florida area are from NY. The Deltona Developers have been marketing very VERY heavy in NYC and NJ. There seem to be a huge influx of non-English speaking residents as well... the past two or three time I was in the Elementary school NO ONE was speaking English in the Office (employees or parents!), went to re-new my driver's Lic. and they were giving a License to man who could not speak English (he had to have a translator). All Spanish speaking. I feel like I am in a different Country.

Our County school system in Marion also converted to Minority status last month due to the huge influx of minority children and nearly 75% qualify for free or reduced lunches... so, if these low income families are moving here in groves over the past couple years, how can they afford to buy these new homes (Most priced Well over $200K)! I see a massive REO/Foreclosure problem looming. We have so many new homes just sitting empty (some for over 6 months now).

You could have bought a 2000 sq ft home with a pool on nearly ½ acre for less than $95K roughly 36 months ago, now the same thing is listed for $269ish (with price reductions). Ridiculous!

super supper said...

Hahahahaha - Crazy G cracks me up! But he's right - how the heck do they get the idea that a retention pond dug solely to prevent flooding in the development suddenly qualifies as "waterfront"? Talk about euphamisms.

And to the spanish-loving previous poster - you think it's bad here? Go up to North Carolina - fastest growing latino population in the country. ALL of the new developments up there are mostly built by illegals. I don't blame the immigrants, though. I blame the jagoffs who hire them - and the gov't for looking the other way. Once you get past the border states, you are home free, senor!

super supper said...

NRDH,
Wow, that would be a great story. If you ever find, please post the link.

FYI, Lisa Marie is hot. But her mom is hotter.

NRDH said...

Used to live in NC. Rumor was that they had signs near the border advertising Monroe, NC. don't know if it's true though.

Anonymous said...

Former home of Lisa Marie now a Statistic...

Link to the Foreclosure Article.


Missie

Crazy G said...

GOOD NEWS & BAD NEWS:

The good news "IS", that housing prices will be coming down...BIG TIME

The BAD news is, that they will be coming down, as the economy heads into a recession..

>>>>YOU WANT REALLY GOOD HOUSING PRICES....||| YOU'RE GOING TO GET THEM ||||<<<<

||||UNFORTUNATELY!!! WHAT YOU GET WITH IT, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO LIKE EITHER||||


The trajectory of the GDP has been 'down' for the last 3 qtrs, and it certainly appears the slide is gaining momentum.....
When the commerce dept reports again, in January, expect the economy to be near stagnant @ 0% or below...

By spring or summer next year, things will be looking rather "BLEAK" to say the least....

When I moved into this developement [that I'm renting in], last spring, I was talking to the Interior Designer, who does all there homes in here....The gist of the conversation was; Are you going to buy in here....
My reply was...Yah.."MAYBE", when somebody ||| BEGS ||| me to buy their house from them....She said;
"I'll let you know when some one's begging", and took off....

We'll I saw, and talked to her a couple of weeks ago, and ""SHE HAS CHANGED HER TUNE""...
She said, the builder is finishing up orders that he had gotten last year, and the beginning of this year, and ""THAT'S IT""

And I can tell you, that the construction activity here, SHOWS IT....

Crazy's advice, is to hunker down, and rent rather than buy, and get ready, with a 'STASH OF CASH"

||| I AM ||||

The other piece of advice Crazy's going to give you, which "NOBODY" will take/do...Is to buy gold/silver...The only money allowed by our CONSTITUTION is gold/silver...."NOT" fiat currency reserve notes...

Read it [constitution] and weep,cuz there will be tears

Crazy G said...

On A Side Note:

Our friends are here this weekend from the Villages, in central Florida....We had discussions last night about 'the life style in the Villages'.......
It seems, there is a lot of "STD"s, going around in their community....
I didn't think it came from the water, or anything like that, and wondered how 'mature' people, would act in such a way as to contract, STD's....

They "CLAIM" that when you move to the Villages, you're buying into a 'life-style', and to 'overlook' the [high] price of homes...

Did you ever think, that's why "ALL" them "SNOWBIRDS" are 'flocking' |||| TOGETHER |||

Anonymous said...

I was in St. Pete last week and looked at waterfront homes on Boca Ciega Bay. There are plenty for sale. Two on the same street listed for well over $1 million, and they were nothing special. Near zero lots, 50's interiors, bathtub sized swimming pool, etc. Agent doesn't bother to show up at open house, uses a next door neighbor to unlock the almost unfurnished property in case some fish like me swim by to look. Good luck to the investor on this one. Please continue to pay your taxes and insurance. Prices have a long way to fall.

Anonymous said...

Great article, Missy.

Lisa Marie + Kirstie Alley + Clearwater =

======> Scientology, Baby!!!!

NRDH said...

Hey Crazy G. My folks live in the Villages, and they must be running around with a boring crowd! I guess they offer all kinds of lifestyles. Glad to see the old geezers still have it going on! While the prices did run up a bit in the villages like the rest of florida, I found that homes there were still quite a bit cheaper than elsewhere in Florida. My parents report that they are experiencing a slowdown as well. I guess the snowbirds can't sell their homes up north to move to the Villages.

Crazy G said...

Well, Mr Palmroos, we'll start with the last question first, cuz I don't think you have to go any farther than that!!!

When will it hit bottom??? My guess is probably 2008...

For those that don't have a Homestead Credit, and are not fathered in, the costs are going to sky-rocket.....
These mostly are SNOWBIRDS, and LANDLORDS....

The taxes, based on appreciated values, || ALONE ||| will take out a significant percentage...
Then you have cancellations of insurance by the 1000's.....
""BUT"", for the precious few, who are still capable, they will have the privedge of buying from the state sponsored agency; "Citizens Insurance"....
Starting next spring, Citizens will have the priviledge of charging them non-homestead folks, a 25% surcharge......over the already highest rates.....
By summer of 2007, after the snowbirds [what's left of them]..head north, most will have realized how screwed they are, and will dump their houses/condos on the market....
Many, many flippers, will just walk away, when they realize the costs involved in "MT" houses depreciating....

THE WORST HAS JUST BEGUN::::

By 2008, Florida will be registering the another first,,,,
>>>First time in Florida history the population has ""DECREASED"""

Then the Latino's who broke down George's new fence, on the Mexican border, will take-up squatters rights....and the Florida legislature, will define a ""NEW" form of Homestead, for all the empty houses and condo's foreclosed by the banks...

When will it hit absolute bottom....Somewhere between 2010-2112.....When the last SNOWBIRD/FLIPPER leaves, and swears never to come back!!!!

Crazy G said...

"PROOF" that Crazy G is NOT really crazy....
From the Palm Beach Post of today:

A 254% hike forces hard decisions
By Jennifer Sorentrue

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Sunday, October 29, 2006

LAKE WORTH — While the housing market boomed and rental prices skyrocketed, David Smith kept his tenants' rent unusually low.

No one living in Smith's tan, two-story building just north of downtown pays more than $700 a month in rent. Two retirees pay just $425 a month, Smith said.


But that may change if county officials don't lower Smith's property tax bill, which more than tripled this year. The proposed taxes on the nine-unit building are $22,523, up 254 percent from last year's $6,365 bill.

At that rate, Smith said he will have no choice but to raise rent, or worse, sell the building.

"Why would I take my entire income for two months just to pay a tax bill?" Smith said. "It's no ego trip for me just to own the building."

Smith said there's no way his tenants, many of whom have been in their apartments for more than a decade, could pay more in rent to offset the tax hike. Seven of the renters are retired or on public assistance, three are single mothers and one is blind, Smith said.

"These are nice people," he said. "There has never been a policeman called to this building. They don't skip out on rent."

Smith blames the tax hike on new townhouses in the area and inflated property values.

=================================
Another...
=================================
Homeowners mount a challenge
By Jennifer Sorentrue

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Sunday, October 29, 2006

Soaring property values and last year's booming real estate market have caused some property owners' tax bills to double and even triple. And many figure the $15 it costs to challenge the assessment with Palm Beach County's Value Adjustment Board is well worth it.

If they win their case, their tax bills could be reduced by thousands of dollars. If they don't, and statistics show the majority won't, they're out only $15
It's a last-ditch shot to lower property tax bills.

More than 10,200 property owners filed the two-page petition with the county's value adjustment board this year. Most were either challenging the assessed value of their property or their homestead exemption status.

It was the highest number of appeals the board has received in more than a decade.

==================================
Crazy G says;
THERE WILL BE TEARS!!!!!

Crazy G said...

Real Estates's [24 yr old] poster 'child'....

He'd make David Learah "Real Proud"

Read the article:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-10-22-young-flipper-usat_x.htm

Crazy G said...

SSOOO!!!

>>>>>"""THE ABSOLUTE ULTIMATE QUESTION IS THIS""""<<<<<

WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE REAL ESTATE THAT THE BANKS DO ""NOT"" WANT TO FORECLOSE ON [aka REO].....

++++The banks do not want those houses on their books...cuz they know they will lose more than on non-performing loans, as the situation deteriorates and evolves, as the house looses value++++

eg; the interest on say $300k @5% = $15k.... a 100% mortgaged house would only have to drop 5%, and the bank is beholden, 20%, the bank is $60k under...[plus costs of foreclosure],and real estate commission to sell the house again, 'if ever', and the situation starts to COMPLETELY unravel.....
Banks are not going to foreclose till the situation REALLY gets bad!!!!!

""BUT"" that will come also,,,,,and then there will be tears!!!!

BigDaddy63 said...

Florida is ground zero for the bubble. In S. Florida, there is now a 4 year visible supply. Prices continue to remain 20-30% above historical mean.

Wait until the snowbirds return to face skyrocketing insurance and tax bills. Many of them will choose to dump their properties.

Also, the reported numbers do not include FSBO's and relisted properties.

It is going to be very ugly. I have outlined this onmy blogsite as well.

Anonymous said...

Honestly, working with the banks (and or their asset management groups) for the past several years... they do not care as much as you might think.

They will buy the house back at sheriff’s sale, continue to complete their foreclosure (even offering money to the owner if they still reside in the house). Sometimes it may take up a year before the property will go market. I have worked with homes that sit empty for 11 or 12 months before they actually become active listings.

Many times, the banks/asset management groups, are not opposed to major price reductions, it is cheaper for them to write it off as a loss than to continue to pay taxes and basic up-keep.

I have worked on homes that ended up selling for a fraction of what the initial sale price was pre-foreclosure. So, if you have your heart set on a Florida home and you don’t mind paying grossly inflated property taxes and insurance, Just sit back and wait to buy a foreclosure! And once again, ALWAYS check the Tax Record (for current owner info) as well as ask the List agent if the property is an REO (foreclosed home), that give you a better idea of what you working with. ;)

Missie

Crazy G said...

Missie:

I agree with you, that they really don't care!!!!

"BUT", when it starts really, I MEAN REALLY, showing up on the bottom line....

++++ THEY WILL CARE ++++

A friend of ours is an auditor, and has insight into these matters also....

Our friend agrees, that things could turn very ugly quickly!!!

And wants "OUT"..

Anonymous said...

I nominate changing the acronym,REO(real estete owned) to BOF(bank owned foreclosure). This will dispel any confusion about the properties status. All in favor,say I.

Anonymous said...

Or how about BORE(bank owned real estate). If we all just start referring to this type of property as a BORE, the acronym will soon stick. All in favor, say I.

Crazy G said...

When you're talking about REO's, etc, you're talking about banks 'micro-managing' their portfolios.....

>>THIS IS "NOT" WHERE THEY MAKE THEIR REAL MONEY<<<

The "BIG" money is in the ""TRANCHES"...

The option spreads in the finanacial markets, where the BIG boys play with themselves...

You're right, they don't care about REO's, they are just a number in a portfolio....

"BUT", when those bottom numbers turn to RED, hedge fund investors come a knock'n....

xSparta said...

Anyone know what the best procedure is to buy a "BORE". I would like to in about a year to 18 months. There should be many available by then.

Crazy G said...

xsparta reply:

Unless you know somebody at 'the' bank, they're not going to fool with you....

'again', they work thru their known channels, which in most cases is/are REALTORS,,,,

>>>>>>>>THE ONLY ADVICE, I'D GIVE TO YOU, IS |||| DO YOUR RESEACH ||||| ON WHO OWNS THE HOUSE, AND WHAT THEY PAID FOR IT....."IF", it comes up, that's it's owned by a bank...

WELL!!! Maybe there's some wiggle room for you!!!

xSparta said...

CRAZY G. Thanks for the advice.

Anonymous said...

Hey Crazy g!! :)

You too are correct.

I am humbly posting on my personal experience in working the whole Foreclosure/REO (or our new term here of "BORE") business. I worked in a couple of areas that are soaked to the core with these properties... have been for years and will be for years to come, because wages do not sustain the housing prices + all related costs of living. These homes have now become a driving factor in the over-all prices of homes in many MANY neighborhoods.

My work experience is in other states, but I see the same thing happening here in FL, because $8 to $12 an Hr (even times two) will not realistically put you into a $250K+++ Home especially when you add in the Taxes and Insurance (not to mention the high utility costs some have here).

There is no special procedure in buying one of these homes, just make sure you have an HONEST agent who is not in the business out of greed (not many out there, because the commission on these proeprties usually runs about $2500 or so, to be split up) and YES, Once Again, CHECK TAX RECORDS... the agent should have them, but you need to do some leg work too.

Here is a good place to start watching the prices on: HUD / VA / Marshal Sales and
so on


Ya'll have a Great Day!

Missie

Anonymous said...

Here is another area that you can check for Foreclosures that have been filed:
The Orlando Sentinal


Missie

Crazy G said...

Advice from Crazy???

"WAY TO EARLY" in the cycle to start thinking of Foreclosures...

Using info available, you can find out what the sellers costs were, how much of a mortgage they have, and can make an offer accordingly...Even a 'short sale' is in the offerring these days....

""Ole time investor John Templeton"", used to say, the best time to "BUY" is when there is blood running in the streets.....

>>>>TRUST ME....SELLERS ARE IN DENIAL<<<

>>>THIS IS """NOT"" GOING TO BE EASY, AND IT'S ""NOT"" GOING TO ALL HAPPEN RIGHT AWAY....THIS IS GOING TO BE A MULTI-YEAR PROCESS, CULMINATING IN 2010-2112

Crazy G said...

How will you know when blood is running in the streets????

VERY, VERY simple....

WHEN BANKS HAVE """WHOLESALE AUCTIONS"" OF THEIR REO'S

How far can this go down???

>>>DON'T KNOW EXACTLY<<<

Down 50-75% easily!!!!

50%, just to retrace, the last 5 years, and throw in another 25%, for the last decade, for kicks!!!

Anonymous said...

I THINK ONE THING THAT WILL PROP UP HOME PRICES, IS THE COST OF MATERIALS TO BUILD. THAT IS NOT TO SAY PRICES ARE NOT COMING DOWN, BUT I DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL CRASH.

Anonymous said...

Anyone have a link to this guys claims about these inventory #'s???


Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater - 15 months


This is how rumors get started. Mr. Paradise Lost, if you are going to post these statistics, then how about links to some resources that can validate this?

Crazy G said...

""""MATERIALS PROP UP HOUSING PRICES"""???????

""IF"", you have read the papers, you'd known, that materials are down 25%, on lumber and OSB....

Besides, materials are only a part of the formula for building a house....
Labor, is the most significant part, and here in Florida, much of the labor force is Latino...
Starting wage for these guys, here in Ormond Beach is $10/hr ....so said the manager of Wayne's Roofing, in a recent article....
==================================

If anything, I think Mr. Paradise lost has ""UNDER ESTIMATED" the months supply available....
For sure, you've got the FSBO, not included, and the Palm Beach Post
recently indicated that there were 566 properties sold in Sept, with MLS listing of 27,000+....EQUALLING ||||| 44 MOS SUPPLY |||||

Anonymous said...

I agree, Mr. G. The inventory #'s here are almost certainly even higher than shown here.

And to the guy who somehow thinks those numbers are made up - just take a look at the median prices quoted by the FAR and then take a look at the REAL median prices. And then take a look at their bs projections for the market over the past year. If you want to go after someone without integrity, go after the FAR.

FL - Paradise Lost said...

There, there! As opposed to the FAR, who never explain how they come up with their numbers, I shall do so, specifically for Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater, as requested. From Realtor.com and the Sept 2006 FAR report for the bay area:

Homes currently for sale: 38,556
Homes sold in the last month: 2,595

38,556/2,595 => 15 months inventory

These numbers have been double-checked and validated.

Cheers!
- Jerry

Anonymous said...

Thank you, sir, for the figures.

I have been tracking the FAR press releases and also noticed that their figures aren't jibing with what I'm seeing in my real estate business. The more they scrub the numbers, the worse it's going to get. I guess they're employing the old adage,

Fake it until you make it.

Too much faking becomes obvious to the most casual obsever, unfortunately.

Anonymous said...

here's another median housing price & inventory number site:

http://www.housingtracker.net/old_housingtracker/location/Florida/Tampa?state=Florida&city=Tampa

Anonymous said...

Great post - thanks!

Crazy G said...

I had just read an article somewhere, that a 'real estate guru' by the name of Jack McCabe, from Palm Beach County....said that there was a ||||| 47 mo ||||| supply of homes available, at the current sales rate!!!!

>>>>>>> """NEARLY A 4 YEAR SUPPLY """"<<<<<<

kyle said...

"A magnificent contribution to Florida's environmental history and a fascinating analysis of 'paradise lost' in the land of the pink flamingos and Disney."--Carolyn Johnston, Tuckered College.
=========================
Kyle
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