This time around, I'd like to get some links from you all with news stories dealing with the Sunshine state and the national media regarding real estate.Please post and share (Crazy G and Lizziebeth - we all enjoy your posts and links). Here are my latest, submitted for your interest....
Florida Tourism Down for Summer 2006
3rd Quarter Home Prices Nationwide
Legislature Addressing the Insurance Problem
Florida Property Tax Reform Comittee - Meeting in Orlando
45 comments:
>>""FAIR WARNING TO ||| ALL ||""<<<
I know this blog is NOT about economics per se, but economics is part of the housing industry.
The fair warning is this!!!
Even as I'm writing this the US dollar index is ""DROPPING BIG TIME"" [currently @ 82.73] with gold @ $645....
I know, most of you don't have a knowlege of how REALLY, REALLY IMPORTANT THIS IS, TO THE GENERAL WELFARE OF THE ECONOMY....
||||TRUST ME||| >>>IT IS<<<
The summary of it is this;....
THE $US DOLLAR is going ""DOWN"", gold is going "UP", and so will interest rates at some point in the near future.
"IF" the dollar breaks below 80 on the index things will start to UNRAVEL ====== ""QUICKLY"
>>>DON'T ASK...IT'S NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE<<<<
I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WHEN....BUT I DO KNOW IT WILL NOT BE GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY, FOR REAL ESTATE, FOR THE STOCK MARKET, & FOR BONDS.....
WE ARE AT AN INFLECTION POINT, THIS VERY MOMENT, AND IN THE NEAR TERM!!!!
I'm taking a break from all the newspaper reading. I still like to quickly check in. It's the holiday season and with all the decorating, shopping, parties(my kids are starting to have more than us,SCARY), one child having issues at school......I am taking a leave of absence for awhile. Crazy can pick up the slack for awhile...... Hopefully he won't scare too many people away.
OOPs, I forgot to sign my name.
Lizziebeth
I can't believe its gone on this long. The US has become the biggest debtor nation on earth. We buy cheap stuff from the Chinese and ship them our dollars. They in turn finance the federal deficit. The day they think we're writing bad checks is the day of reckoning. The housing bubble will be one of many problems. We live in a culture of debt on both the personal and governmental level.
G and Anon,
I totally agree - our debt-nation lifestyle has got to change. I am reminded of our fearless leader after 9-11, who told us that the best thing we could do was to keep on shopping!
Now, is that funny, or sad?
Crazy,
I would have posted this a couple of threads ago, but it's old threads...
Anyway, in response to your antagonism here is my response (not the I am not arguing with you, the crazy person)
I could buy with cash, and I happen to agree with your point about 100% financing being part of the problem.
It was an "apples to apples" comparison. I sold my condo and my money is in the bank :o)
Remember, people need to always look at apples to apples and not pretend that the 10% or 20% they put down doesn't matter in the math... Because it matters...
I'm the guy who just flew to Chicago and bought a rockin' 349 horsepower Mercedes convertible with the cash I saved by renting instead of buying in the last 12 months... I bought it cheap from a Chicago real estate investor who needed the cash...
Yeah, I get it.
Bryan
Bryan reply:
I suggest that you live in your Mercedes for awhile, till the housing market cools off.....
Look at all the money you can save then!!!! Maybe move up to a Rolls!!!
And YES!!! You can eat apples, and save $$$$$ ALSO!!!
p.s. Just besure to spit out the seeds. [poisonous]
CRAZY'S CREDO!!
SHOP TILL THE DOLLAR DROPS!!!!
If you haven't spent "ALL" your money yet, on Christmas, Mercedes cars, New houses, etc....Crazy suggest you do so NOW!!!!
If the dollar keeps on going down, like it has been recently....all those thing that you normally buy, will be going up in price....SO,
Get out there and buy NOW!!!!
Besides, Wal-Mart comps are a little low....Shop @ Sam's if you got the chance....their stock price is sagging....
Be sure to max out ALL your charge cards, so that when you go into foreclosure, your HELOC's will be in there also....
||||Crist: Lower windstorm rates, not just smaller hikes, is goal||||
Yupe!! The politicans don't have the insurance industry "TOTALLY" screwed up just quite yet...eg] you can still buy a policy....Wait till they get done with this mid-January session, and see if there are any insurance companies left in Florida, at all!!!!
Charlie Crist is right about one thing he said though..
||||Crist said the insurance companies "need to be aware that there will be accountability."|||
The accountants at the insurance companies have reported that it's NOT profitable longterm to insure Florida....
Charlie sure nailed that one from the wrong side!!!!
Inquiring Minds want to know where all the construction workers went???
Our sleuth on the street may have found out!!!!
|||WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of U.S. workers applying for jobless benefits climbed by the highest amount in more than a year last week, to 357,000, the Labor Department said Thursday|||||||
Can it happen in the United States????
|||Banks in the United Kingdom have been ordered by financial regulators to assess how they would cope in the event of house prices crashing by 40 percent||||
WELL!!! Crazy can tell his opinion....."""JUST"" look at the price/income differential in Palm Beach County....and the answer is a resounding ..."""YES""
Prices would have to drop by 50% or more for Joe Blow/six pack to even afford anything...PERIOD
Crazy G - great stories (falling dollar, construction employment, etc...) - got some links for us?
Anyone want to move to Buffalo?
Did a search for:
- Minimum 1600 sq feet.
- Minimum 3 bedrooms.
- Minimum 2 car garage.
I swear, looking at these prices makes me think it's in an alternate universe.
http://www.realtor.com/FindHome/HomeListings.asp?frm=bymap&nearbyZp=&lid=Enter+MLS+ID&pgnum=1&ss_aywr=&optInCheckbox=&st=NY&mls=xmls&lnksrc=&mnbed=3&js=on&mnsqft=1600&fid=so&vtsort=&poe=realtor&mnprice=0&ct=buffalo&zp=&primaryZp=&mxprice=99999999&typ=1&exft=0&exft=0&exft=e2cargar&exft=0&mnbath=0&areaid=436
Is Buffalo really that bad off?
Fl- paradise lost reply:
Crazy as it sounds, I haven't figured out how to do a URL/html linkage yet.....
I can copy, and paste, but some of this computer stuff has left me behind
This one will blow your socks off;
||| http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_F06_Barnes.pdf |||
Boltens White House by Fred Barnes:
Paulson believes a financial crisis is
overdue—a serious crisis that would
be a body blow to the U.S. economy.
SO SAYS; FRED BARNES
YOUR HIRED!!!!
WHOOPS!! NO YOUR FIRED!!!!
SO SAYS HOME DEPOT!!!
|||| SALES FALLOFF KILLS STAFF-INCREASE PLAN ||||
By SUZANNE KAPNER
November 30, 2006 -- Home Depot abruptly shelved a much-touted plan to improve customer service by hiring more store-level employees - just a month after rolling it out, The Post has learned.
The about-face appears to be the result of a sales slowdown that is far more severe than the company anticipated, sources said.
================================
Crazy says:
Proceed to aisle #3 for your pay/ servance check, for fast check out
Zippo....
You should check out places like:
Youngstown OH:
Ashtabula OH:
Conneaut OH:
and their surrounding areas.
Also here are the homes listed from 0-$30K in the Atlanta MLS
Just like The Buffalo NY area, many of these towns once had industry, but have all succumbed to employers moving out of the US... Now, there is still work in those areas, even some well paying jobs... BUT for the most part, the average pay will be about $8 an hour (not much different than here).
Oh, yeah... Happy Holidays Ya'll!!
New place to vent your feelings HERE:
Public vents anger online against Citizens
By Randy Diamond
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Saturday, December 02, 2006
Several hundred Citizens Property Insurance Corp. policyholders are using a new Web site to slam the insurer, complaining about high rates, the lack of a payment plan and poor customer service.
Many of the more than 300 entries on the state-sponsored site also contain desperate pleas from policyholders worried about losing their homes and being forced out of Florida because of increasing rates at the state's insurer of last resort.
• A retiree who lives in Century Village in West Palm Beach wrote that he is "living on the edge." He continues working part-time at the age of 72 to supplement his Social Security to afford insurance.
• One person complained about spending $4,000 for hurricane shutters to fortify his house from a major storm only to find out that his Citizens premium discount was $3.
• One policyholder said that doubling rates every year would force him out. "I will no longer be able to live at my house. Nothing else doubles every year. It is totally impractical."
• Another wrote rates need to be comparable to other companies. "The 300% rise in my rate is uncalled for and ridiculous. There is no logical reason to have Citizens rates remain high."
• One man wrote that he was 59 years old and that his wife was sick. While he is working 60 to 80 hours a week to cover bills, including Citizens, he said he still anticipated losing his home.
"We can't even sell our house to move out of Florida,'' wrote one mobile home owner, adding that their premium from Citizens for a less than 1,500-square-foot mobile home was $2,627. "We are going to go bankrupt! We need help now!"
The Web site, www.CitizensForABetterCitizens.com, was launched Tuesday by the State Office of Insurance Regulation to solicit opinions from policyholders. Although the comments are not available online, Citizens, the state-sponsored insurer, provided them to a reporter upon request.
"""THIS IS EXACTLY HOW WE GOT HERE: HOW WERE GOING TO GET BACK, IS 'NOT' CLEAR""""
==================================
“‘The old, easy model‘ for pricing a house ‘is to look at the computer to see what sold last year and add 5 percent,’ said Stephen Baird, president of Baird & Warner Real Estate in Chicago. ‘That model doesn’t work now. The market is going to tell you what a house is worth. You just may not like what the market says.’”
==================================
It certainly doesn't appear to Crazy, that the market participants are talking to each other, here, are they....
I'd like to now when offers start flying for 30% less or more [50% less].....This BS, where offers are always 5-6% less than asking flies in the face of reality...
Middle eastern countries scoff, at our stupid, stupid princpals of paying retail, and not negoitating prices....[aka...bargaining]...
Why is it an "insult" to offer 30-50% less than asking price, when you know, from research, what the seller has paid....Even at 50% market down, you may know the seller is clearing a handsome profit, these days.....
WAKE UP FLORIDIANS, AND SMELL THE SELLERS SIZZLING IN THEIR OWN FECAL STEW!!!
HO HO HO !!!!
MERRRRYYY CHRISTMAS!!! HO HO HO!!!
>>>>YOUR FIRED!!! HO HO HO!!!<<<<
Pacific Lumber lays off 90 workers
By GLENDA ANDERSON
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT
SCOTIA - Pacific Lumber Co. on Friday terminated 90 employees, citing declines in timber harvests and lumber prices.
SO HOW DO YOU SPELL "DEASSTER" in the making....right before your eyes.....
ICI HOME Builders, here on the North East coast of Florida, is proceeding with """ 45 """ more homes, on one particular street....
[Information taken from their website]
Most of these homes are in the range of $450K +/- 10K.....
As of NOW, there are only 2 that are occuppied....
In this community, they have an estimated near 100 houses sitting....
Have they cut prices???? >>> NOT REALLY!!!!<<<<
On their website, they have discounted a few homes by $20K or so.....
According to the West Volusia MLS, the houses priced above $300K, just aren't selling well....PERIOD
BASICALLY....All the builders want the same thing!!!!
TO HIT THAT SWEET SPOT ON HOMES ABOVE $3 - $400K range...
YAH!!! RIGHT!!! Merry Christmas to them too!!!!
Taking a page from Donald Rumsfeld's yet un-written book,
THERE ARE THINGS THAT WE ""KNOW""
AND THINGS WE KNOW WE DON'T KNOW..
HUUHHH!!!
We know, that lumber prices have dropped by 30% or more....
We know, that construction has slowed down somewhat.....[lay-offs, and cut backs, etc]
What we know that we 'DON'T KNOW' is how long these contractors can go before they start cutting their prices...just to get some work!!!
AT THAT POINT, where-ever it is out there in the unknown, IT WILL BE CHEAPER TO BUILD A NEW HOME, RATHER THAN BUY ANY FROM EXISTING STOCK....
Many current owners, will be 'inverted', in as much as they will owe more on the house than it is worth, and they have it financed for, and can't/or won't be able to get out of it!!!!
THE ULTIMATE CONUNDRUM IS ABOUT TO HIT!!!
WE KNOW IT'S COMING, AND WE KNOW, THAT WE "DON'T KNOW" WHEN IT'S GOING TO HIT!!!!
I've been saying; this NOT going to be easy.....
From the Guardian Observer Newspaper;
Plunging dollar will set world markets reeling
Heather Stewart, economics correspondent
Sunday December 3, 2006
Observer
The slowdown in the US economy, which has sent the dollar into freefall over the past fortnight, will have devastating knock-on effects in markets around the world, analysts warn.
As the US slows, and consumers in the world's biggest economy feel the buying power of the dollar in their pocket declining, global growth will be hit hard, economists say. The greenback took yet another turn for the worse on Friday, after a survey of the US manufacturing sector showed output declining for the first time in more than three years.
'The ECB's in a complete state of denial,' said Paul Mortimer-Lee, global head of market economics at BNP Paribas. 'Quite a lot depends on how Trichet plays it at the ECB press conference next week. They're hankering after raising rates again next year.'
Mortimer-Lee said the Fed would wait for definitive evidence before making a move. 'At the end of the tightening cycle, you know you've got an inflation problem, and it's only when the evidence is overwhelming that you move.' However, he believes that evidence will come soon: with investment in construction already falling as the housing boom turns to bust, BNP Paribas is predicting that a million jobs will be lost in the building industry alone over the coming 18 month..
===================================
""""A MILLION JOBS ||| LOST |||""""
Sweet....Who's going to buy all those empty houses....Yah right!!! We'll finance them with zero down, and ""NO"" payments for 40 years....Just like they do at Rooms-to Go....
Missy,
Great links from Ohio. I agree, these towns have all retreated from "better days", and Buffalo is really on the eastern border of the midwest. But heck, even with $8/hour income, one should be able to swing a $27K home? I wonder what the commission comes out to on a place like that - wow.
G,
Loved your quote:
"Taking a page from Donald Rumsfeld's yet un-written book,
THERE ARE THINGS THAT WE ""KNOW""
AND THINGS WE KNOW WE DON'T KNOW.."
Sweeeeeeet.
Zippo rely:
Missie could get herself a 'Faustian Mortgage'....
You know.....One of them mortgages where you pay nothing down, and no interest till 2017...
Then on January 1, 2017.....
>>>>>THE DEVIL COMES TO GET YOU<<<<
Missie/Zippo
Modestly Priced Housing;
I was reading on another website, about a Blogger, who's dad's house sold for $15,000.....
It was in a mid-western state...Indiana, or Illinois, I can't just recall.....
What caused the price reduction, was the loss of jobs....Several large employers had closed down, and the town just became a ghost town sort of.....
YES!!! You can buy modestly priced housing....just NOT in Florida [RIGHT NOW]
The CRAZY question is, what's going to happen to all those empty houses???
Well, I noted on RealtyTrac, that there was a house in foreclosure in our community....as it turns out, I have to drive by it 'every time' I go in/out of here!!
I had previously noted activity there but never paid much attention, till I had seen them move out, while it was still for sale...Well, it has gone into foreclosure, and it now appears to be in the hands of the lender.....
SSSOOO!!! The other day, my curiosity got to me, and I stopped the car, and walked up there....
The swimming pool, was a 'nice shade' of slime color, and it looked ready for the aligators to take over....
After several months of neglect, it was just starting to get that appearance...?????....you know!!!
As it turns out, the house sits on the corner of one of the busiest intersections in the community...
I suppose it won't be long, before we see someone putting up some 'protest' signs on the front lawn....
I don't think the bank particularly cares what the association does....What are they going to do....foreclose on an empty house....
They can levy all the association fines they want...
The association, just may have to swallow hard, and pay the costs themselves to keep it up!!!!
G, maybe the association could turn it into the community pool/club-house.
Hahahah I was selling those kinds of homes left and right to folks making $35K and less until we moved back here. One kid got into a nice 1800 sq ft 3 bed on 3 acres for only $32K and I got the bank (a foreclosure home) to pay all closing costs. Sweet!
I do not know exactly what event or events have driven the FL market into the stratosphere, but I have seen more greed and sheer financial stupidity through the course of the past few years here.
Zippo:
Commission on a foreclosure is a base of $2500 or 6%; which ever is greater (with all the banks and asset management companies I worked with)
Missie reply:
I seriously DOUBT that banks will go the 6% route, on houses in the upper price ranges...
This is why the FTC is suing the NAR for price collusion.....
Realtors are starving, and banks are tight, with holdings, and you think everybody wants to play the 6% game....
I've sold 5 houses....only one was 6%.....last one was 3%, previous was 4%, previous, sold it my self, previous 6%, previous sold it myself....
"IF" you auction it off, there is a buyer premium.......YOU PAY....
equal to the realtor commission?????
Seller then doesn't pay...buyer does!!!!
Hey Crazy,
Just posting what I (as an ex Realtor who was a foreclosure specialist for many years) was getting on my listings and sales. I never had to worry about "auctions" with my listings, they never stayed on my books that long.
Commission varies Widely, and the banks/assest management comapanies set the commission on their inventory, NOT the brokerage that lists it. :)
I always thought that Pastors make a modest income.
When I read this, I was shocked to say this least.
I bet a lot of creative financing went into this deal.
You have to wonder if people like this even bother to read the newspapers or internet at all?
Why would anyone buy in this market if they could rent?
Check this out:
" Consider John Schmidt, a pastor from Florida who is moving to Santa Rosa. After getting over the sticker shock from Bay Area housing prices, Schmidt was able to buy a four-bedroom house for $635,000, about $14,000 below the list price. He expects to close the deal Dec. 27, the same day that he plans to move to Santa Rosa with his wife and youngest child.
Visiting a series of open houses during his two-month search, Schmidt said, he drew intense interest from real estate agents when he made it clear he was a serious buyer."
Here is the full article link:
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/12/14/BUG8DMVN8C10.DTL
He is seriously NUTS!!
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