Friday, December 22, 2006

Our Own Private Idaho

The US Census population growth figures for 2006 are out, and, as you can see, we're trading places with (of all places) Idaho in terms of population growth. (source, US Census Bureau - releases from 2002 to 2006)
(And in case you were wondering who the top 2 have been these past 5 years, in every year it's been Arizona and Nevada. Talk about wandering tribes in the desert!)

Note that these figures are from July to July, so the latter half of this year won't show up until the December 2007 release of data.

Though we've dropped to #9 in % ranking, we're still #2 in total population gained (2nd only to Texas), with 321,697 added. That comes to 881 people per day (and we all know that figure is dropping as we speak). So tell your local realtor to stop spouting off the "1,000 people a day" figure that's been quoted ad nauseum during the bubble.

The bottom line - for the first time in decades, we're almost assuredly dropping out of the top 10 next year. What a surprise.

Full Article from US Census Bureau

Oh, and if I don't get a chance to post before next Monday, have a wonderful Christmas Weekend!!!

- Jerry

37 comments:

SKB said...

Really hard to imagine anyone moving anywhere at this time, never mind to Florida.
How could there be 26,000+ people moving to Florida when housing is not moving?
Where are these people coming from?
Tents?
I do find it surprising when I read of people buying homes right now.
It seems like is are either a lot of really stupid people or there are still people that are in complete denial and are in the "hurry" mode still.

Anyways, this entire bubble is playing out like the movie of the week.
I am always anxious to read the latest "report" or opinion from the "experts".

Everyone have a safe and wonderful Christmas and a prosperous New Year.

SKB

jayz said...

"Where are these people coming from?
Tents?"

Hilarious! But so true - if everyone is having trouble selling their house in their home state, how the heck are they going to move to another?

Nevada and Arziona included.

Anonymous said...

Sure like to go down to florida and tool on a few sellers/new homebuilders demanding 50% price cuts.

Anonymous said...

want a laugh

http://www.cnbc.com/id/16314121

Anonymous said...

I will be coming down soon to BLEED"EM DRY!
Can't wait to friggen pound some reality into these desperate sellers. I will bleed every conceivable price concession out of them.

Some is going to pay dearly!

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Bob

CRAZY G said...

I wish I would have said this.....

""BUT"" somebody beat me to it:
==============================

At the same time, on a more sobering note, don't forget the words of Mahatma Mohandas K. Gandhi:

"The things that will destroy us are: politics without principle; pleasure without conscience; wealth without work; knowledge without character; business without morality; science without humanity; and worship without sacrifice."
===================================

I plead the fifth amendment...
signed; Crazy G.

CRAZY G said...

Read what John Templeton has to say;
==============================

John Templeton, who has absorbed price changes in many markets across several decades, told Equities magazine in 2003 (well before the peak): “Almost everyone has a home mortgage and some are 89% of the value of the home (and yes, some are even more.) If home prices start down, there will be bankruptcies, and in bankruptcy, houses are sold at lower prices, pushing down home prices further. After home prices go down to one-tenth of the higher price homeowners paid, buy them.”

==================================

""""BUY AT 90% DISCOUNTS"""""

SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD DEAL TO ME!!!!!

Anonymous said...

“With Bay State home-foreclosure rates soaring, Mayor Thomas M. Menino is calling on the Legislature to tighten mortgage-lending rules. ‘We have all seen the dramatic spike in foreclosures, and we know that a large part of the problem is caused by lax oversight of mortgage companies,’ Menino said.”

Anonymous said...

Templeton -90% fall. HEHEHEHE

Anonymous said...

Buyers, though, could care less about the outlook for interest rates: They smell blood.”


hehehehe

"Smell Blood"

Wish everyone a great holiday!

SKB said...

True about the interest rates. I hope they up a few points.
For one all of the CD,s that I have been laddering are coming due to renew which means higher %s for me.

The other reason is quite obvious, higher interest rates means cheaper houses.

SKB

Anonymous said...

To All HMIC Business Partners,

It is with deep regret that we announce Harbourton Mortgage Investment Corporation will cease operations effective the close of business today, December 20th, 2006.
We are extremely proud to have had the opportunity to serve our Brokers, Investors and Business Partners and wish everyone much success in the future. Provided below are areas of contact:

HMIC

CRAZY G said...

Crazy told you this was going to happen!!!!

Revenues to City, County, & State were going to DECREASE....
Based on ALL the fees associated with home construction, sale, and fianace.....
==================================

Housing lull hits North Port in wallet
By JOHN DAVIS and HEATHER ALLEN


STAFF WRITERS


john.davis@heraldtribune.com
heather.allen@heraldtribune.com

NORTH PORT -- New home construction, the linchpin of this city's spending plans, has slowed to a comparative standstill and even optimists say these doldrums are far from over.

The massive drop in home building, which started in April, has left everyone from City Hall staffers to spec home buyers scrambling to adjust. And three months into the city's budget year, there is no telling how ugly things will get.

The numbers so far do not bode well. New home permits in North Port have dropped by 40 percent in the past calendar year. The month-to-month comparisons are even more dismal, with November 2006 permits coming at one-third the number of permits issued in November 2005.

Meanwhile, the city has a record $155 million budget -- a 39 percent increase over last year's spending plan -- built after two years of remarkable growth.

The city tried to hedge its projections, but it still wound up with a budget about $43 million higher than any before it.

Impact fees, used to pay for capital projects such as road widenings and new parks, account for $28 million of this year's budget.

To collect that much money would take about 3,900 houses and 50 large commercial projects. The city is nowhere near that pace so far, being on track to issue about 1,000 home permits this budget year.

"Whether we did (cut) enough or not remains to be seen," said City Manager Steven Crowell.

Large fund balances and tens of millions of dollars unspent from the sale of abandoned lots give North Port options, but it's not going to produce thousands of new houses, or the kind of growth that gave the city enough wiggle room to slash its tax rate without cutting spending.

=================================

"""NOW""", CRAZY'S GOING TO GO ON RECORD TO TELL YOU THE WORST OF THE WORST IS GOING TO HAPPEN!!!!

>>>>>""""TAXES ARE GOING """UP""<<<< FROM HERE """NOT "" DOWN!!!!!

They've committed to spending the money, they thought they would have,,,,AND NOW THEY DON'T,,,,,

Anonymous said...

Home prices are going to continue to tank as property taxes escalate...

yeeeeehaaaaaaawwwwwww

Anonymous said...

http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/

Lereah fighting back calling housing bears extremist.

Keep up the battle against this crew.

Anonymous said...

Itr's the end of the world if housing goes down 40-50% NOT!

I call it a justified correction to bloated prices.

CRAZY G said...

50% may not be the end of the world ....per se....

""BUT""... You're going to be "CREAMED"...IF YOU GOT A 115% MORTGAGE....

AND THE BANKER IS GOING TO GO DOWN WITH YOU, AND SO WILL THE ALL THE STOCKHOLDERS & DEPOSITORS.....

THIS AIN'T GOING TO BE PRETTY, AND IT AIN'T GOING TO HAPPEN TOMORROW.....""BUT"", it's to late to bail out now without a loss....

Anonymous said...

This is a great Blog. Keep up the great work!!!!!!!
Thanks for saving my @$$

CRAZY G said...

Just remember one thing;

After all is said and done, and the debtors pockets have been cleaned out, and the bank has eaten it's humble pie...

"">>>THAT HOUSE IS STILL GOING TO BE STANDING THERE!!!<<<""""

COLLECTING TAXES!!!!

Real Estate is an asset, much like a stock or a bond......
Once created 'someone' always owns it...
People that 'believe' that real estate can 'only' go up...are confirmed 'inflationist'....
Believing that the Federal Reserve can inflate the money supply to the sky, and people will take on 'infinite' amounts of debt...

Just like in the 'Capital One' commercial....""WHAT'S IN YOUR WALLET""....
A "BIG" fat bill to pay????

Just like someone once said...

Sooner or later we all sit down to a banquet of our consequences!!!!

Anonymous said...

I don't understand why taxes will go up.
There has been a record # of new people into Florida in the past 10 years. Doesn't that mean that the govt. should have collected a record # of tax money?
Why would the Florida govt. budget their spending at the increased price? Where did all the money go?

Anonymous said...

Paradise = nightmare for many dummies

Anonymous said...

The SS Florida sinking...bail bail bail!!!!!

Wayne said...

It may actually be our own private Michigan. As you surmised, the decline in Florida's population growth rate is probably much steeper than the census data indicates. In December, public school officials announced that K-12 enrollment was virtually flat - up 0.02%. K-12 enrollment historically has grown about 60% as fast as the population in general, so chances are the population in general had grown a whopping third of a percent since the previous September. The last time Florida's school population growth was this weak was the start of 1981-1982 school year - not coincidentally the beginning of the second worst recession since the Great Depression.

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