Thursday, December 07, 2006

Pavement from Ocala to Sebring, Daytona to St. Pete

New projections from University of Florida's GeoPlan Center for 1000 Friends have come out for Central Florida:

'The state's population will double to 36 million by 2060, and if growth management policies don't change, 7 million of the state's 19.5 million remaining undeveloped acres will go urban.'

Other components of the forecast:

'• Continuous urban development from Ocala on the north to Sebring on the south, and coast to coast from St. Petersburg to Daytona Beach. The corridors of interstates 75 and 4 will be fully developed.

• Full build-out of Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee and several other central counties.

• Replacement, or at least fragmentation, of virtually all of the area's natural systems and wildlife habitat corridors.

• The largest percentage of urban land use - 51 percent - of any region in the state. More than a quarter of the region will be transformed to urban status in the next generation.'

What does all this forecast growth mean?

'Unchecked growth presents several threats to the state, according to the study. Crowded schools, traffic congestion, inadequate disaster preparedness and infringement on natural habitat and land that has cultural, environmental or historical significance can deteriorate the quality of life of residents. It could put the brakes on the state's phenomenal job growth, particularly with the "creative class" so highly sought.

"This piece of work is saying, 'We can see the future, and it's not what we hope it will be,'" said Tim Jackson, 1000 Friends' vice president. "Let's rethink this and start by doing a real plan for the long-term future."

Some potential solutions?

'• Expansion of the Florida Forever land acquisition program, to the tune of $1 billion a year from the $300 million now budgeted for conservation.

• New policies on the conversion of rural land to urban use, requiring more preservation, open space and agriculture.

• A 100-year legacy plan, a sort of statewide comprehensive plan laying out what areas are appropriate for development and redevelopment.

• Identification of leaders to organize and advocate for statewide growth management.

Officials from 1000 Friends said they will convene state leaders next year on long-term state planning. The group also is working on a 2060 scenario if projected growth and development patterns follow principles of smart growth.'

But, ney, the DEVELOPERS (and their paid-for lackeys who "represent" us in Tallahassee) have other ideas (that will ensure their pockets are lined for decades to come). Remember! Construction is the #2 industry in Florida. If we don't stop building, we die. Ha!

'The Legislature may not be quick to embrace the recommendations.

An extensive growth management package passed in 2005 now requires concurrency from developers, or pay-as-you-go for infrastructure needs such as roads and schools. The legislation also committed billions of dollars in state money toward road projects and other transportation needs.

And the Florida Forever program - successor to the original Preservation 2000 program - does not expire until 2010.

Lawmakers on Wednesday suggested it might be premature to tinker with growth management policies.

"I commend 1000 Friends of Florida for being visionary and getting out in front and talking about the next program," said state Rep. Stan Mayfield, R-Vero Beach, head of his chamber's Agriculture and Environment Appropriations Committee. "But it's important to take stock and realize where we are in our overall conservation efforts."

Mayfield's compatriot on the Senate side, Republican Dan Webster of Orlando, said he wants to examine the progress of the 2005 legislation before digging in again. "We're not done with what we started," he said. However, "We haven't stopped evaluating what we did. We're not closed to ideas that would say, 'Here's a better way to do it.'"'

So, maybe all this overpriced housing is a good thing? Maybe the "tax thy new neighbor" policy is a good thing? Maybe the insurance crisis is a good thing? Maybe...?

Full Article

42 comments:

Alison-VolusiaCo. said...

These predictions have been made since I've lived in Florida (1986). I think all these people-environmentalists, developers, politicians-have their own agenda which may or may not benefit us. Lake Apopka is a great example of these 3 things creating a huge stinking mess. Lake Apopka was in bad shape because of muck farmers and 'Big Sugar' (whatever that is)so the environmentalists got the legislature to buy them out (bye bye tax money!). They've been doing everything they can to clean it up with varying success-bird kills, fish kills, and now a second mouse infestation. Now guess who's moved in? Yep-developers!!! Selling lots-less than 1/4 acre I think-for 200-400,000 (hello tax money!). What effect do you think the pesticides and fertilizers used in maintaining their non-native landscaping will have on Lake Apopka? Hopefully the mice will scare them off. That's the thing about Florida-if you have kids in school and have never lived in the deep south I don't think you want to live here for any length of time. The schools stink, it's hot, it's buggy (scary buggy-ever run into a banana spider at night?), and it's 'not like when we were on vacation'. I think housing got out of control because of speculators and because everyone THINKS they want to live in Florida. I can't think of anyone I've met from up north that likes Florida and wants to stay here for any length of time. True 'Floridians' are a special breed I think. Just thinking about leaving Florida gives me heart palpatations--I couldn't imagine leaving! Everyone else can't wait to get out.

CRAZY G said...

Alison reply:

I'll repeat a previous posting, for you...

When I move to Palm Bch County in 1981, I remember the Palm Beach Post Business Editor [Jack Nease], stating in a column,

""""THAT IF YOU WEREN'T HERE DURING THE CONDO BUST IN 1976, THEN HE DIDN'T WANT TO HEAR ANYTHING YOU HAD TO SAY ABOUT REAL ESTATE"""

In 1981, they were still working off the inventory from 5 years before....

EVERYBODY, I MEAN EVERYBODY, THINKS IT'S GOING TO BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME!!!!

|||| YAH RIGHT |||||

FL - Paradise Lost said...

Alison,
During my second "tour" of Florida (went to UCF from 87-91), I remember the mess up on Lake Apopka. If I recall correctly, they were saying it was a "dead lake", mostly due to excessive fertilizer runoff from the orange groves and waste from an OJ processing facility. And yep - you got it - everyone else got to pay to try and clean it up.

I also agree with your assessment of the current situation - a bazillion lakeside lots with fertilized lawns and concrete runoff will not help the matter at all.

But if no one moves there, maybe the lake will get a chance to restore itself. Those rats sound like a real treat!

Alison-VolusiaCo. said...

I'm starting to do work with a group that certifies farms and processing plants as organic under USDA standards. We were driving to an orange grove owned by a 5th generation orange farmer. I asked how it could be possible to hear about the greedy developers paving over everything (even baby birds-the horror!) to build houses and yet my husband and I still can't afford a house. He makes 50,000 a year and we have no debt except 5000 in student loans ($50 a month). Something just doesn't add up.

Farmers aren't the bad guys, environmentalists aren't the bad guys, and even developers aren't the bad guys--when they build affordable houses, that are needed, in areas that can sustain them. Building a new city (Destiny) south of Yeehaw Junction (ever heard of it-most haven't except in jokes) doesn't seem sustainable to me. I drove by Harmony-a new 'city'in Osceola county-and it is astonishing the size and scope of development out in the middle of nowhere! Prices start at 300-400,000. Hallalujur! WTF!

And don't get me started on who should own lakefront/canalfront property in Florida! If you can't put a worm on a hook with your bare hands? NO! Ever contemplated pulling a small gator out of the water just to say you've done it? YES! Think the reeds, cattails, and brown gunk on the edge of your lakefront property stand in the way of the clean, sandy lake entry you DESERVE--so you rip it out? NO! Can tell the difference between a mullet (not the haircut) and a catfish under water using only your polarized sunglasses? YES! You get the picture.

BTW the farmer told me how his family got their land. His great-great-great(?)-grandfather opened a general store when people where trying to homestead in FL. People would move here from up north, buy things on credit from him, fail in their farming endevour, and ultimately give him their land to pay their debt. The groves I inspected were 1600 acres and ALL the land Metrowest (a large planned community in west Orlando) sits on belonged to their family. Lessons to be learned from this? Should we have a test later?

CRAZY G said...

IS CRAZY G REALLY CRAZY OR WHAT!!!!

I posted this a couple months ago, about a converstion I had with a realtor, about how I thought the Internet was going to change the world.....

ESPECIALLY REAL ESTATE!!!!!

She told me that she got 75% of her leads from listings posted!!!

I said SEE!! Your 75% of the way there, and you don't even realize your out of a job!!!!

WELL!! ""TODAY"", I read where """ ZILLOW "" is going to let you post your house for sale, with them.....|||| FREE OF CHARGE |||
"IF", it works for them ...the dam is broken....say good bye realtors.com

CRAZY G said...

I know you worry and justifyable so!!!

"BUT", if your a believer in all this "greeny stuff", then you also have to be worrying about the warming climate trend....

"If", that is real, and I personally do believe it is....and has been happening for 10,000 yrs or more.....

>>>FLORIDA IS DOOMED TO BE UNDER WATER ANY WAY<<<<

Will, I or you be here to worry about it...HELL NO!!!!

DISEASE....Is what you have got to worry about...not some stupid delveloper!!!!

JUST TOO DAMN MANY PEOPLE, PROPAGATING EACH OTHER.....
They're just going to screw themselves out of place to live!!!!

CRAZY HAS SPOKEN!!!

Alison-Volusiaco. said...

Hallalujer!!

I was just thinking earlier today that bird flu will hit either CA or FL first. My mom has a hurricane/bird flu/terrorist attack supply closet at her house. She's got masks, gloves, antibacterial stuff. Everyone thinks she's crazy but we'll be kicking people away if something were to happen.

I agree with a lot of this environmental stuff. I think we're responsible, by our maker, to take care of the planet. We recycle, turn off lights, turn up the ac. I just hate when government steps in. They inevitably screw it up!

CRAZY G said...

CRAZY SAYS:

IN THE LONG RUN, YOU CANNOT POLLUTE THE EARTH.....

In 250,000 years it will cleanse itself....

Life is for the living; as my dad would say....

DO WHAT YOU CAN....."""BUT """" DON'T GET CRAZY LIKE ME.....

Unless your ole' lady has got a 12 ga. sitting behind the door, she is in trouble...Because when and if they come, they'll be armed to the teeth....
In 30 years anarchist, will rule the streets, our military will be broke, and our system will be in collapse....
>>> DEBT <<< is going to bring this country to it's knees....

>>""" THERE WILL BE TEARS ""<<<

AND YOUR MAMA IS GOING TO CRY!!!!

Anonymous said...

I rented a Ryder truck not long ago to move my daughters furniture up north. The guy at the truck place said they now have more trucks leave the state then come in and they have to pay people to drive the back. I don't know about these projections being accurate.

lizziebeth said...

Anon,

It's probably pretty accurate if you look at the one way costs to and from Florida. I haven't checkedd lately but it has been less than half to rent a truck to go into Florida than to leave. More people leaving than coming. So much for those 1,000 people a day.

lizziebeth said...

Great article in the Sarasota Herald. Don't have time to post link, but the title was Land Prices in Manatee Plummet. Great read! They had some amazing qoutes from a realistic, honest realtor and consultant. Here's my favorite.

" Every 5 years theres a cycle in real estate. We were at the top and riding high 18 months ago. I made some sellers millionaires, and the boom didn't hurt me either".

Another good one" The faster real estate agents and their clients can come to the conclusion that Florida real estate prices need to come down, the faster the recovery can begin".

This is a must read! Finally some acceptance with some realtors. And printed in the media. Boy I bet the paper takes a lot of heat on that one.

CRAZY G said...

HOW you will know "WHEN" it's a good time to buy a house!!!!

>>> EASY <<<

||| AFTER SEVERAL OF THE MAJOR BUILDERS HAVE HAD A 'TRUE' LIQUIDATION SALE, OR HAVE GONE OUT OF BUSINESS ||||

Then, and 'only' then can the the whole business cyclical start over again.....

Crazy's advice, is ""NOT"" to misplace your self on the business cycle.....
You may find yourself pedalling down hill......

sandi said...

Crazy, Alison, all the rest here,
I too worry about global warming and it's effects on Florida - the lowest state in the union. Granted, it won't be a problem for our generation, but perhaps < 100 years from now.

That opening photo says it all about Florida. That's how it feels sometimes

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Anonymous said...

They based this story on 2005 census numbers, and ran the story in December 2006. Could not wait till the 2006 census numbers come out, for fear of not being able spin the population growth story any more, just to sucker people into buying here. Devious and sinister shills for the REIC.

We all know that school enrollments are lower this year, and where did all the middle class families go? Out of state. Population growth is now negative, and will remain that way, till the cost of living here becomes reasonable again. Learn to live with that fact REIC.

dwell said...

Where are they all going?

chester copperpot said...

Allison you are awesome!
Thank you for worrying about the effect pesticides have on natural Florida.
I am starting to think that responsible Floridians such as yourself are as endangered as the manatees.

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