Our "good friends" at the FAR (Florida Association of Realtors) are loath to admit it, but they have released their official numbers for July, and they are not so great. Here now the synopsis:
July, Year over Year, 2006 compared to 2005:
Statewide
# of Homes Sold: 21,691 (down 33%)
Median Price: $250,800 (up 1%)
Major Cities --------- # of Homes Sold --------- Median Price
Tampa/SP/Clear---------2,629 (down 45%)------------- $237K (up 9%)*
Jacksonville------------- 1,374 (down 17%) -------------$204K (up 7%)
Miami ------------------- 673 (down 38%) -------------$382K (up 5%)
West Palm/Boca----------714 (down 44%) -------------$390K (even)
Tallahassee-------------- 467 (down 7%)--------------- $173K (down 2%)
Fort Myers/CC---------- 694 (down 32%) -------------$290K (down 8%)
* Note that this #, in my studied opinion, is serious fudge. The number is actually around $300K. (Please see previous posting here titled "Something Smells in Tampa Bay...." for an analysis as to why and how the numbers are so skewed from reality.)
More commentary on this report to follow. Until then, get your fill of half truth at: July FAR Report
...and remember - unless you have overwhelming reasons for buying a house in Florida right now, DON'T DO IT!!!
To employ a Florida metaphor, we are presently at the very top of the "Kamikazee" water slide at Wet-N-Wild. We've got a lot of air between us and the bottom.
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So, the big question is: are we turning the corner, or (per the NAR) "just flattening out"?....
My money is on the former.
These shills should have their pee-pees whacked for all the cheerleading they've been doing for the past 5 years.
Now the bill has come due, and they still won't admit that we're just jumping out of the airplane now, and the backup chute just failed.
Can't wait to read these numbskull reports over the next 3-5 years - should be hilarious!
Hey, c'mon now! These "future used car salesmen" need to learn how to smile and lie at the same time.
This is great training for them.
Its interesting, the bigger the city (# of sales-wise), the less of a hit in sales price.
Seems to me that they are better able to fudge the numbers when there is a bigger pot to piss in.
By golly, I think "Slow and Low" is on to something!
But really, realtors never lie!
And they never fudge numbers!
And they always look out for your best interest!
;^)
How now, brown cow?
Just got the sad news my boss is in the middle of getting his house built. Yikes - I guess he's planning on staying here for a few years (or decades..hee hee!)....
The median price number is meaningless whether it's manipulated or not. In Brevard County (and probably elsewhere), recently tightened density limits have forced developers to build bigger and more expensive units. When these very expensive units close, they drag the median price upward, so, even if sales slow tremendously, the median can continue to rise. Also, don't forget that many of the closings being reported now were contracted before the downturn in prices.
The depth of the ugliness is yet to be revealed.
Yep - funny how the FAR will use median price in one report, then average price in the next.
funny...yea real funny...
My job transferred me to Tampa 2 months ago. After selling my house up north in June of 2006, I decided to rent a house in Tampa with a very short term lease until I could figure out what was going on with the “bubble.” I’ve been looking at the figures for the “South Tampa (which includes Davis Island)” area because that is where I want to buy a home when I see prices come down significantly- perhaps 30-35% off the current listing prices. Everyone thinks that is crazy- but looking at the numbers, my goal might be very realistic. The results for South Tampa are SHOCKING:
According to Greater Tampa Association of Realtors (www.gtar.org), in July of 2005, there were 179 sales in South Tampa. In July of 2006, there were only 65 sales in South Tampa. That is a drop of 63.7%, which is higher than any drop I’ve seen in any other area. Only 65 sales last month for all of South Tampa! Right now in that area, by my calculations on MLS for all of South Tampa (including Davis Island) - there are currently 2,482 homes for sale. That means last month only 2.5% of the listings sold. South Tampa is the most expensive part of Tampa, and it appears clear from these numbers that NO ONE IS BUYING MUCH OF ANYTHING. If you have a house for sale in South Tampa, your chance of going under contract in any given month at this rate is only about 2.5%. If you can’t figure out why your house isn’t getting any interest from buyers- you are not alone.
I’ve heard a lot of people, including real estate agents say that prices in Tampa, and particularly the highly desirable areas of South Tampa- won’t go down very much. But with this kind of inventory, and very few buyers- prices will have to start dropping significantly, particularly in South Tampa. The hotter the area was in the last few years, the bigger the drop in the price will be over the next few years.
If you are looking for a house in South Tampa, you would be crazy to buy at this time, unless the owner of the house was coming down at least 30% off current listing prices (which they are probably not willing to do at this point).
Waiting is the only rational thing to do at this point. But who in the world is buying now????
I'm happy to be renting!
Great story.
Waiting for these numbskulls to price their properties in line with reality (i.e.; no buyers) can become quite tiresome. Just remember, in the past, every big dump in the RE market always started with a mass of overpriced inventory. That's where we are right now, my friend. The crash gathers momentum when foreclosures start rising, comps start dropping, and the bottom finally hits another 12-18 months later. Lots of pauses and "dead cat bounces" in between.
Keep your eyes peeled, and be ready to low-ball any property that's been sitting for > 6 months.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it!
So how do you know when things are close to the bottom? Clearly as long as the inventory for existing homes for sale continues to rise we can't be at the bottom. Median prices have not started to drop but I can attribute that to the fact that the few people who are buying are cherry picking the best properties. And from looking at what has actually sold over the past 60 days, there are still a few daring fools paying a lot more than I would pay. I'm hoping it won't take 18 months or longer. But I guess I can sit on my cash and rent.
Any one have any tips for timing the bottom?
where is orlando? i just bought a condo downtown @ 20% BELOW APPRAISED VALUE.
Timing the bottom is a futile effort - just be sure to get the price that you feel comfortable with. I am still AMAZED at what people are listing their houses for - especially when you check the tax records to see what they actually paid for the place a few years back.
Example: 1800 sq ft house 3/3/2, decent neighborhood - Listed $349K. Purchased in 2000 for $145K.
Does that make any sense? Maybe in 2005, but not in 2006 (nor 2007, 2008, 2009......)
仔細想想【自我評量】: 姐妹們如何判斷自己適合哪種店家呢？誠懇面對酒店求職自己目前的外型條件，八大首次印象就是「以貌取人」，條件好的公關，就不用去較犧牲的店(如拚酒)，條件不好就只好往尺度大的店發展！ 自己能接受的尺度能到哪裡？隨每家店風不同而有差異，有的只要當花瓶、有的要鬧氣氛、有的要拚酒、有的要秀舞...等等，先衡量自己本身的條件能接受到什麼程度？當然，妳也可以什麼都不用做，但試問我們憑藉什麼來賺一小時1000元以上的薪水呢？ 自己可以配合店家的上班時間和天數嗎?!酒店上班和所有工作一樣，都是要花固定時間來經營，節數才會越衝越高。兼職3天酒店薪資與正職5天，兩者時薪會因天數不同而有差異。相對一週上班天數越多，會更受店家青睞！而業績幹部的「推檯」有時也依照天數的多寡來決定。 假使試做幾天後，什麼原因我需要考慮換店?!在「對的店家」一天賺$3000~$5000不是問題。在自我調整過後(如包廂應對等)，仍沒有達到目標，而店裡生意也不差，妳就要思考在該店或許沒有競爭力，應該考慮換店、換跑道，而不是等店家開口要妳離職。【選店就像選酒店當日領男友!!】 『白天不懂夜的黑!』是我們對剛入行的姊妹，時常說的一句話。因為不了解，所以有誤會。也就是常道聽塗說，所以造成錯誤的決定，加上八大的環境競爭，資訊與型態變化很快，3個月以上就算舊聞了。常有未入行公關問:「林森北路看起來比較亂，比較LOW耶?!」。「錯!沒有絕對的第一名，只有對妳而言的第一名。」簡單舉例:選店就像選男友。挑男友不是只挑好看的，要挑珍惜妳的。「要為自己量身訂做」，以台北為例，如住三重、蘆洲可就近選擇中山區，光通車的時間與金錢成本，就可以抵不少檯費了。若有消費客層年齡較高，太年輕的姊妹反而不吃香，因為有「代溝」。中山區也有許多高質感的店家，要相信經紀公司的專業判斷，(信義區也有土台客、鄉下也有時尚酒店薪水男)，千萬別以區域來論定一切喔!同一棟大樓有許多家酒店，或許看起來出入較複雜，但也容易聚集人氣，客流量也較高。因此要找出符合自己最優的選擇，是要專業與細心的評估，並非一窩蜂的躁進。【妳挑店家，店家也挑妳!】為了縮短適應時間，盡快投入賺錢的唯一王道，就是「事前功課」。我們給「應徵/換店」者一個想法，假設未來一週4天班每天8小時，那事前準備最少也要1/8的時間吧!最少花4小時，把「了解環境」當作一份工作來做，大部分都會找到理想的店家。當然我們會提供各環節的條件，如檯面上的(制度、檯費、4小時=24節)，否則排換其他姐妹(就是酒店術語「逼框」)。在此模
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