Commerce figures are out for new home construction sales in November. From the St. Pete Times:'Maybe it was balmy weather up North, maybe it was lower interest rates, but the country as a whole experienced a mini spike in new home sales in November.
Pity poor Florida: The Sunshine State, and most of the South for that matter, didn't enjoy the rebound.
Nationally, new home sales in November rose 3.4 percent from the previous month to an annual rate of 1.047-million. That exceeded economists' forecasts of a 1.018-million homes.'
Sadly, prices have risen. Again.
'The national median new home price climbed to $251,700 in November 2006 from $237,900 in November 2005.'
Remember, the Commerce Department report does not take into account cancellations - so these numbers tend to be higher than actual.
And for the Tampa Bay region, some reports on the builders.
'Transeastern Homes: The builder of such best-selling neighborhoods as New Tampa's Live Oak Preserve has tried to stave off bankruptcy by laying off more than 100 and dismissing regional president Bob Krieff.
Ryland Homes: Heavily invested in Pasco County, Ryland's southeast division, which includes Florida, saw new home orders tank 64 percent from the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2006.
Centex Homes: Centex's sales this year have been leaden compared to 2005. In the Southeast region, the number of home contracts plunged 53 percent.
Beazer Homes: In the Atlanta builder's annual report in September, the company said new home orders dropped by a third in Florida. Its stronghold has been southeast Hillsborough County.
Pulte Homes: Based on its latest report, the nation's second-biggest homebuilder sold 29 percent fewer homes in the region that includes Florida. It has trimmed its work force 10 percent. Pulte is active in Clearwater, Seminole, Hudson and Wesley Chapel.'
Full Article
US Commerce Report - New Home Sales
74 comments:
the FL crash only gets worse as spec/flippers sitting waiting for the spring rebound go bust under the wieght of escalating cost.
I appreciate all your efforts to keep us "bitter" cash rich renters informed....
Thank you and Happy RE Crash 2007
Yes, thank you, I can't help wonder where the rest of the floridians are??? cmon, the CA blogs are full of comments etc... Are we all too busy playing with our hurricane shutters?? well from Ft lauderdale, nothing is selling, price reductions are large and pervasive,and incentives are becoming ridiculous, houses with boat/furniture and cash... etc. Anyone else care to chime in?
Seems they are still posting on the housing bubble blog.
Although I read all of the blogs on the bubble, I still find this blog to be most informative and interesting.
Thanks for the great job.
SKB,
Happy New Year!
Keep up the good work the TSUNAMI begins shortly - Pass me some popcorn!
crispy&cole
Another thought could be that there are more FB's in Florida that choose to ignore the facts. I know in my circle of friends I am a strange breed! Of course, no one wants to admit it's as bad as it is, but in private I'm sure they are cursing me for being right!
SKB, I too llike this blog more. The housing bubble blog has become too big! I prefer to discuss the local market!~ When I do go over to the other blog, I just read the Florida articles.
“The Charlotte County market has so frustrated Dave Bonham that he moved his family to Idaho. He has been trying to sell his house since August 2005, and so far all he has to show for it are four price reductions and one failed deal. ‘We just had a little bit of poor timing there,’ said Bonham. He got it appraised for $285,000 and listed it for $279,000. Two expired listings and an attempted auction later, his price is $219,000.”
“‘Nothing has really changed as far as people moving here,’ said Bonham. ‘The difference, is where each buyer had three houses to choose from, suddenly each buyer has 30 houses to choose from.’”
“Although prices have fallen, analyst Jack McCabe said, ‘it’s a much better time to rent. You can rent a property for 55 to 70 percent of the ownership costs would be, even factoring in your federal income tax deduction.’”
“Besides, he said, ‘there’s a huge credit bubble out there right now’ with about $2 trillion worth of adjustable-rate mortgages that will have to be adjusted to current market rates in the next two years. That could trigger a wave of foreclosures as people have to give up houses they no longer can afford, McCabe said.”
“Borrowers with minimal equity in their property are becoming more common, he said. ‘I don’t think that we have ever experienced as high loan-to-value mortgages as we have today,’ Gordon said.”
“During the heady days of advancing home prices, many people tried to get as much house as they could, and some stretched beyond their financial means, according to the managing principal and portfolio manager of an investment firm that specializes in bank stocks.”
“‘People said, ‘If I don’t buy today, that house is going to cost about 10% more in six months,’ said Robert C. Ollech of Fortress Partners Capital Management Ltd. in Hartland. ‘That was the go-go attitude two or three years ago, but that has come to a screeching halt,’ he said.”
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/6089/1833/1600/182145/National%2520Existing%2520Median%2520Appreciation-%2520Nov.png
Today, I spent some time looking at homes and comparing what they paid versus what they are asking.
It was a bit sickening for me to realize that most that are for sale right now are indeed owned by investors.
I came across one couple from San Clemente CA that has a total of 7 properties in Florida. One is currently being built.
The rest are all for sale.
One property they just recently purchased Sept 2006 for 122,900 is now listed for 219,900.
The earliest property (land) purchased March 2002 for 4,000 now has a home for sale for 189,900.
These people make me SICK!!!! Who are they kidding to think that this party is not over. I wonder if they still think this was worth it?
These were just the properties I found in one area. I wonder if they have more in other areas?
BTW,
Their total tax bill for this year:
$24,264
They have paid all but one of their tax bills.
All properties are empty.
I feel NO EMPATHY at all as I can not even begin to try to know what their shoes must feel like. I know that I would never have taken greed to that level so it is impossible to feel empathy for them.
SKB
After some more fishing around I discovered something that could be a mere coincidence (or not) as the property owner shares exactly the same (first name, middle initial and last name) of the author that wrote the book: The Executive's Guide to Controlling Health Care and Disability Costs.
From the Publisher:
"Uses a vast amount of examples to show that, by making health concerns part of the overall corporate strategy, companies can promote employee well-being, provide necessary health services, keep a lid on skyrocketing costs and ensure long-term financial stability.
A breakthrough book offering workable company strategies for controlling out of control health care,workers' compensation and disability costs...."
only 34.95
I guess he was to busy flipping and writing that he didn't bother to read " : The End of the House Bubble by John R Talbott".
Yes, thank you Frank, great job, this year should be interesting.
SkB,
Your frustration is where mine was a year ago. Now we are content to rent, save money and watch this thing unfold! Even with the housing crash, it's still paradise to me. It's 80 and sunny right now! Ahhh, nothing could be better!
Funny thing happened two years ago when we were planning on moving back. It wasn't until now that I realized what this persons intent was.
I was sitting in a cell phone waiting area at the airport in Orlando. A rather attractive middle aged man came up to my car(window was down), and asked me if I could reccommend a high end neighborhood in the Orlando area. I told him I wasn't familiar with Orlando, but I knew Winter Park to be a nice area. I thought he must be relocating here and nervous about where to live in Orlando. Chances are as I just realized he wanted to buy in the best area of OrlandO. bY His dress and mannerisms, he was probably from California, possibly New York.
LOL, maybe he was the book author.
My husband has now put in for several promotions all over Florida.
Ft. Lauderdale is the most recent. Who knows we may be moving sooner than we thought.
My brother in law lives in Ft. Lauderdale and loves it.
I am anxious to move back to the USA and enjoy that beautiful Florida weather.
Have a Happy New Year Lizziebeth
SKB
So! We thought we'd do a little get-away for the holiday, and loaded up the camper and headed upto the panhandle to check things out....
We came through Panama City.....
WWOOOOOWWWW!!!!
Just like the corridor from Fort Myers to Naples....
CONDOS EVERY WHERE!!!!
DESTIN is unbelieveable....
>>>TRAFFIC so thick you want to swat them like flies!!<<<<
""""IF THIS IS WHAT THE FUTURE OF FLORIDA IS .....COUNT ME OUT""""
Counting 25 years here and OUT....
I am not going to pull my charts and spreadsheets, just a few comments based in my daily life in Florida. I live on Ft. Lauderdale, more specific Hallandale Beach.
I live near the beach (2 Or 3 BLOCKS)next to the intracoastal,view of the ocean.Old but well maintained(built 1971) condo
I will recommend to STAY AWAY from here even when the prices collapse
Reasons:
1-INSURANCE COSTS.
Flood insurance for my building went from (real Figures)$10659 to $37.109, more than 200%.
Something related to a reclassification from FEMA.
In the part of multi-peril wich includes windstorm the older insurance Co. did not renew windstorm insurance .
In November 17th Sun-Sentinel ( local Newspaper)proposed rate increases for Broward County from the low 94.2% to high 118.2% .
New Insurance Co., Citizens Property Insurance, increases policy from $143.286 to $235.000.
All these increased the maintenace in 15%.My taxes are low because i bought in 2003 but i am sure if i move will go higher.
2-INVENTORY.
There are entire towers empty (ie:The Beach Club,three high-rise,1,200 units ,Duo, two high-rise towers holding 400 units.Ocean Marine Yacht Club,283 units and the list goes on and on). The site where the European Club, a 30-story mixed-use development which will have 118 condominium residences and up to 170 condo/hotel suites remains empty after demolition , that is located next to my residence
In the last condo meeting ,i found out there are more than 30 units for sale in my condominium .Owners are asking to change the charter to permit the rent of some units. ( my building is owners only).
In short , lots of offer will bring prices down, and i am not counting foreclosures yet, a big factor in this flip area with a lot investors sitting on inventory.
3-OVERALL ECONOMIC FORECAST.
I don't want to dwell into this
4- HURRICANE FEARS
Early predictions include
Entire U.S. coastline - 64% (average for last century is 52%).
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 40% (average for last century is 31%).Almost the same for the Gulf coast.
In short, the weather is nice but the price is not.
The entire re market going to crash in price to reflect the much higher cost of living.
IMO the prices will come down 50-60% from peak prices.
Let me take that back...70% drops are very possible in Fl.
Carrying cost have just soared so RE prices need to adjust downward for this much heavier burden.
It is going to get really really desperate in Fl this year.
VFSV,
I read your story, thank you for the great reading.
My husband works for Customs pre clearance in Canada and he said that there have been 100's of "snowbirds" flocking in the last several days. Most are renting condos, some own.
Also as far as upgrades in a home, there are literally dozens and dozens of extra things you can upgrade to a home. Things that are not the obvious.
Things like extra rooms, larger rooms like bathrooms and patios, various Entertainment centers, cut out windows, fireplaces, additional culverts, side doors on garages, higher insulation, different front elevations, glass block windows, double pane windows, frosted glass, sliding closet doors, marble window sills, french doors, upgraded door handles, crown moldings, plant shelfs, columns made from various expensive materials, 30/40 year old architect shingles, or S tiles, a zillion options for upgraded plumbing, sidewalks, circular driveways, two color interiors, white ceilings, extra mirrors, higher end carpets, higher end tile, central vacuums, underground sprinkers, ceiling fans, extra outlets for power, tons of various counter tops, styles, colors, wood trims, back splashes, cabinets upgrades, wine racks, extra cubboards, high end appliances, air purifiers, programmable thermostats, the list goes on and it is easy to add 100,000 in upgrades to a home.
For me as a future buyer upgrades are nice but what I want even more is for them to lower their prices. I will then gladly add extra options on things that matter to me.
Happy New Year everyone!!
SKB
I have to defend south florida a little, granted everything said is basically true, however, The weather is great and if you are a boater, there is no better place to live, that comes at a price yes, but it is "still" cheaper than many waterfront areas. Now how the economy here will weather the burst??? who knows, I am worried.
Someone said 70% drop, agree being a long time resident. The economy cannot support anywhere near these prices and with northern areas prices going down the money will halt the flow. Insurance and taxes have skyrocketed. May have to move out if it continues.
I am hoping for a 50% decrease, 70% would be to good to be true. It makes the most sense over all to see the prices come down that much.
Man, what will people do? I feel tons of empathy for anyone that purchased during the bubble times. I have been watching losses so far up to 33% in SoCal and it is only the beginning.
Florida is going to take the hardest hit as the salaries are so much smaller in Florida than they are in SoCal.
I can see less and less people supporting the HH theories of yoy 25% price appreciations. I guess they are finally dawning in.
So now the biggest question will be how long exactly. I think it will happen rather quickly. I guess I am hoping as it will hurt less for people in the long run. A long drawn out decline will be the worst for everyone involved.
SKB reply:
"IF", Japan is any indicator for us, then we are in for the LLOOOOONG PULL DOWN HILL.....cuz Japan's real Estate market has dropped 18 years in a row!!!!
IMHO, Florida has ""NO"" jobs....
Just a bunch of pencil pushers, and waiters, etc...
Florida doesn't make anything, of any consequence, besides Citrus products, home building, and cattle industry...
In Palm Beach County, the school system is the biggest employer, followed by the medical and other government employees....
""WE"" CAN'T KEEP ON PUSHING PIECES OF PAPER AROUND, WITH LARGER NUMBERS ON THEM, AND KEEP SAYING WE'RE RICHER, BECAUSE OF ""IT""....
Percisely, what ""IS"" going to determine what does happen is completely out of our [U.S.] control....When, and "IF" foreign central banks start dumping U.S. Dollars, the game is over.....
Housing Market, Stock Market, and Bond Market, will COLLAPSE with the U.S. Dollar....
ALL, that money piling up over there somewhere is going to come back to bite you....
?????WITH OIL @ $60+/BARREL.....WHAT ARE THE ARABS GOING TO DO WITH ALL THAT MONEY????
We don't make any turbins for them to wear....
Some day, in the next decade or so...Somebody is going to read a history book, and say:
""""GEE, THIS HAPPENED BEFORE....HOW COME WE DIDN'T KNOW ANY BETTER???""""
This is just in:
Can you believe this article?
Who is going to buy these condos?
What about all of the other unfinished projects in Florida?
These developers really take the cake.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16440697/?GT1=8921
most of these RE dreamers deserve eerything heading their way. They wanted riches by doing nothjing to earn it.
I hope to chop off at least 50%-60% on anything i consider purchasing. The cost of taxes and insurance are putting massive pressure on prices.
BLEED'EM DRY!
SQUEEZE EVERY PRICE CONCESSION POSSIBLE 70% IS VERY POSSIBLE!
Great find, SKB. That's making today's post.
- Jerry
70% would be way too much in most areas! 50% is going to be disastrous enough! With that said, I won't buy until it's 50% off. I'm sure others see the same as I do. Not only are the specuvestors going to get burned but many long time Florida residents that jumped on the real estate game! My guess is that at least 60% of Florida homeowners(renters from the bank), will be detrimentally affected by the bust!
I am in Coral Springs florida, and here out west I don't see dramatic price decreases. Let me qualify that a bit by saying that the houses on the market since last summer seem to have added at least 25% over 2005 prices. Although many homes have reduced their prices by even as much as 100k their starting asking price was very high. In Coral Springs I'm just beginning to see homes that are slightly better than dumps being offered just under 400k. Any modestly nice house is over half a million (500k+). I am not taking about anything more than a pretty basic 3/2 or 4/2 with some curb appeal is over 500K. To me this is ridiculous, and if you listen to the RE folks here, we've hit bottom. I hope prices plummet in 07, but I'm not holding my breath. I will continue to rent, and if things don't improve in the next 2 years, I am going to leave.
Anon,
I'm with you. Prices haven't dropped enough which is why houses aren't selling. The prices will have to come down. Too many speculators who can't make the mortgage payments.
A fun past time is looking up various realtors in the tax records. So many bought homes in 2005 and own multiple! They must have watched one to many late night infomercials!
Things will come down. The only houses selling are those that are priced right! Even at the right price, it's just too risky to buy right now.
Here's a handy tool to help you decide when to buy. It's a rent vs buy calculator. I can't remember how to post links but you can google to get the calculator or try this link.
http://www.dinkytown.net/java/MortgageRentvsBuy.html
Based on this prices need to come way down! Interesting thing though. If I rent a $700k home for $3000 a month, the calculator says that I will break even after five years with the taxes at 1%. If I up it to 4%, I don't break even after 30 years based on investments.
does anyone know the actual tax rate for Sarasota????
Nice site Lizziebeth, thanks.
I ran the calculations and rent beats buying even after 30 years for me too. I've been hearing a lot of talk that the FED may reduce rates in 2007. I think they should raise them but I am not an economist. Still, I fear the greed and stupidity that brought the housing bubble in the first place will be fueled by any reduction in rates. People seem he$$ bent on being finacially stupid, and they must want to believe the RE cheerleaders even when the evidence is contrary. Some say the mortgage rate is not really tied to the FED rate, but still I think if they lower it, the dumb and dumber will continue to look only at interest-only loan payment.
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