From Marketwatch - we've now reached an all-time high in overbuilt housing.'WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of vacant homes waiting to be sold surged 34% to 2.1 million at the end of 2006 compared with the end of 2005, by far the fastest increase ever recorded, the Census Bureau reported Monday.
A year ago, 1.57 million homes were vacant and awaiting a sale.
The vacancy rate for owned units jumped to a record 2.7% from 2.0% a year earlier. From 1965 to 2005, the homeowner vacancy rate had never been above 2%. The long-term average is 1.4%.'
So, in laymen's terms, what does this mean for the housing market?
'"We have more than a million housing units of excess supply," said James O'Sullivan, an economist for UBS. "If you are looking for evidence that the worst is over for housing, you're not going to find it in this report. This argues that housing starts need to go down more."'
And some discussion on how this will affect rentals, which will affect inflation.
'Meanwhile, the homeownership rate (the percentage of homes occupied by their owners) was essentially steady at 68.9%, the government said, close to the all-time high of 69.3%.
With so many vacant homes for sale, owners will begin to offer them for rent, said Asha Bangalore, an economist for Northern Trust. If the supply of rentals rises, rental prices should begin to come down, helping to bring down core inflation.'
(thanks to Crazy G)
50 comments:
I suspect the vacancy rate may be a little understated with all of the "liar's loans" out there all claiming primary residency. Does anyone know if there are there any statistics local rates of vacancy?
""The crack is in the dam supporting the prices, says Crazy"
Rather long story, so you can understand the point, being made....
The builder/developer in our community, started selling 'pre-construction' townhouse prices in early 2005, @$150k....as they came to fruition, he started raising prices to $200k, then to $250k, by the end of the calender year 2005..
After the beginning of the calender year 2006, few if any townhouses were sold period, but that didn't stop the price increases nor building, as he raised prices to $275k, then to $300k on the most recent """UNCOMPLETED"" units standing there unfinished....
He's got 8 left, from the first 60 or so that they built, and 20 more in the uncompleted phase....Of the 60 completed, there are probably another 10 or more for sale by flippers, making total of 18-20 of the 60 for sale, of the completed units....
SSSOOOO!!!! WHAT HAPPENED, you asked????
WELL!! One of the original $150k buyers wanted out, for what ever reason, and listed it months ago, at $250k...IT DIDN'T SELL....dropped the price, by some, then some more....
Recently sold at approximately $205K ""FURNISHED""
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN.....WELL CRAZY IS GOING TO TELL YOU, THAT WHEN YOUR IDIOT AGENT DOES A COMPARABLE HOME PRICE ANALYSIS, IT GOING TO SHOW UP $50K TO $100k LESS THAN ""ALL"" THE OTHER ASKING PRICES.....
>>>>""THE CRACK IS IN THE DAMN, AND THE FLOOD GATES ARE NOT GOING TO HOLD THIS ONE BACK<<<<
ADDENDUM THOUGHT TO PREVIOUS POSTING IS THIS:
""Of the 80 or so, townhouse units, that have been built or are in the process of being built, 'nearly' 40 remain on the market...
And prior to this latest sale, there has NOT been another previous sale in 6-9 months...
What's going to happen when.....
You gotta be Crazy to figure that one out!!!
Ft. Lauderdale - I agree with you. Freakin' Florida is most definitely carrying a lot of the weight in those vacancy statistics. In Tampa and Orlando, I've recently seen completed townhome communities with only a handful of units with their lights on at night. We are SO overbuilt.
"With so many vacant homes for sale, owners will begin to offer them for rent, said Asha Bangalore, an economist for Northern Trust. If the supply of rentals rises, rental prices should begin to come down, helping to bring down core inflation."
This is already happening big-time in Sarasota. In the Laurel Park neighborhood - a charming, historically coveted close-to-downtown neighborhood mostly built in the '20s, with a nice mix of single-family houses, cottages and small apartment buildings - for rent signs are sprouting like hurricane lilies. In a complete reversal from a year ago, for rent signs outnumber for sale signs by about 4 to 1.
I just rented a place in a less charming part of town, vacant since November, in a large, late-to-market condo-conversion project. The monthly rent had come down from $1,200 to $1,000. But if I had wanted to buy the unit I'm renting, the asking price would still be $210,000. So, let me see . . . I can put down a $1,000 security deposit and then pay rent of $1,000 a month . . . or I could put down $13,000 in down-payment and closing costs and then pay about $2,000 monthly for PITI and monthly maintenance. Which do I want to do?
Well, I should buy, of course! Never mind simple mathematical reality or the huge overhang of nearly completed condo towers just now hitting the market. At least that's the word from the Sarasota Association of Realtors, which just launched a "Time2Buy" marketing blitz. See, it's not the market - it's the lying media! The market has actually bottomed! Traffic is picking up! Sellers are getting multiple offers! Better hurry!
Crazy - I feel sorry for the moron who bought that unit for $205K.
(actually, I don't - why can I never tell a lie?)
:^)
Sarasota/Bradenton is the absolute center of the giant real estate zit known as florida that is about to spew nasty pus all over the place.
Nobody here will survive this without a messy face.
Dang, brother! That is a nasty picture...but I get your point.
I nominate Palm Beach as the epicenter. It is gettin' fuglier by the day.
Can we get a counter or something for the day when it is somewhat safe to buy a house? =P
GOOD time to buy, is when it makes the front page of TIME Magazine, about how really bad it is...
They unknowingly called the top, in 2005, saying how good it was...remember????
Something to note here, that maybe under the radar...
There has been a 'slight' tightening of credit standards, to some degree.....
Something as innoccent, as requiring first time homebuyers to have 5% down instead of 100-115% financing..
YAHH!!! I know, it doesn't seem like a lot, but considering where we've come from, 'just' having somebody to put any money IS a big thing....
""BUT"", what in fact will happen, is when the banks and finance companies finally start eating humble pie, THAT'S WHEN YOU SEE THE CREDIT RESTRICIONS REALLY TIGHTEN....
Within 6 mos or more after those zero down loans collapse, you see the banks head for the hills, with money also!!!
Well, it certainly looks like Gov. Crist, is going to save us all, like somebody said he was going to do 2000 years ago....
His statement at the end of the article gives you an indication of what kind of ""SNEAKY" s.o.b you have as a Governor....
>>>""""It is a balancing test," Crist said, defending his keeping the proposal under wraps to avoid alerting the insurance industry and giving it time to mobilize. "You want to give as much notice as you possibly can without risking the cancellation of policies for innocent Floridians.... Sometimes you can let the industry know too much, and they will take advantage of it."<<<<<<<
EXCUSE ME GOVERNOR, "SIR"...
BUT AREN'T THESE THE GUYS SOME OF US ARE STILL PAYING TO PROTECT OUR HOMES???
AND YOU WANT TO STICK IT TO THEM....YAH!!! RIGHT ON
===================================
Insurance rule suspends policy cancellations
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/content/business/epaper/2007/01/31/a4a_crist_0131.html
So, the latest 'caveat emptor' for the real estate buyer, is:
HOW MUCH COMMISSION IS THE REAL ESTATE AGENT GETTING TO PUSH THIS PROPERTY ON YOU?????
In the past, the norm used to be 6%, with some sellers negoitating 3-5% as an alternative....
||||||WELL TRY 10% COMMISSION FOR A REWARD FOR FINDING A SUCKER|||
=================================
>Stephen Bartlett is trying to sell a three-bedroom Lauderhill house with a new roof and kitchen and other upgrades. He's asking $265,000 and recently decided to give the buyer's real estate agent a 10 percent commission.
"I've already had more people call me on that property in the last weeks than I had in the last year," Bartlett said.
Bartlett, a real estate agent, is portfolio manager for CT Capital, a Fort Lauderdale lender and investor. CT Capital acquired the Lauderhill property through foreclosure and is pricing it below market value, he said.
A standard commission is 6 percent, with the buyer's agent and seller's agent each pocketing 3 percent.
But given how slow South Florida's housing market is, sellers should prepare to make huge concessions on price and commission, lest they want the properties to sit unsold for months, he said.
"I think this is going to be the norm from now on," Bartlett said.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/local/sfl-ybrealpo29jan29,0,3968081.column?coll=sfla-business-headlines
10% - WTF?!
My next buyer's agent is soooo screwed. I will have it put in writing that any commision above 3% will go directly to me.
Nice try, jagoffs.
From the other blog;
================================
JPMorgan CEO James Dimon said that the company has sold off most of the mortgage loans it made last year to people with weak credit histories. He said mortgages are the one area of subprime lending where ‘we really see something taking place that looks like a recession.’”
He said in the presentation that ‘loss severities’ in subprime mortgages have started increasing, and that delinquencies of subprime loans originated last year are higher than at a comparable time. JPMorgan boosted its provision for loan losses to $262 million from $158 million a year earlier, due in part to what the bank described as ’some deterioration in subprime mortgage.’”
==================================
Crazy's take on it is:
These guys knew they were loaning money to weak credit risks, but as long as they could cut a commission on the mortgage they took it????? NOW!!! They are dumping those poor mortgage risks onto somebody else.....
P.T. Barnum, was correct...there is a sucker born everyday, 'if' they can get away with it???
What I want to know is, with 2.1 million empty houses, WHO is going to buy them? Illegal aliens? Rich retirees who need 2nd and 3rd homes?
This is quite special.
|||||||""""MARK IN ON YOUR CALENDAR ....JUNE 1 st""""|||||
What 's the big deal with June 1st????
Well, it appears it's one of the dates that the finance industry uses to reset their mortgages....
kinda universal, so they can 'bundle' and sell the mortgages off to some unsuspecting buyer....
Any way, I recently met with my absentee landlord, who owns several flipper homes, and lives up in New England....A couple of his houses are empty, and for sale, or for rent....He told me that he had just talked to the realtor, and 'they' wanted to keep the listing for a longer period....He said "NO", you got till May 1 st...
I couldn't figure out why he was so adament about May 1 st.....
SSOO!!! After he left, I got on my computer, and looked up his properties....
Well!!! This guy has got 'pay-option' mortgages on them...
INTEREST STARTING AT 1%, and reseting every June 1 st....
DO I DETECT A LITTLE PANIC IN THE AIR????
As a side note, to his meeting with the realtor, he told me that the realtor, had ""NO"" sales for the 6 mos leading up to Jan 1 st....And that's with approximately 6 agents under them to boot....Since the first of the year, he said they sold 6.....
SSOO!!! MARK THE DATE JUNE 1 st, ON YOUR MENTAL CALENDAR.....There's going to be something big happening then!!!!
From the article posted here @ Fl Paradise Lost;
===================================
With so many vacant homes for sale, owners will begin to offer them for rent, said Asha Bangalore, an economist for Northern Trust. If the supply of rentals rises, rental prices should begin to come down, helping to bring down core inflation
===================================
WE ARE "ALL" GOING TO BE DRIVING BACKWARDS INTO OUR DREAM HOMES, AS THE RENTS FALL, AND INFLATION SUBSIDES, BASED ON RENTAL PRICES...""NOT HOME PRICE RESALES"" WHICH THE FED USES TO GAGE INFLATION....
""WHEN YOU BUY YOUR DREAM HOME, BESURE THE GARAGE DOOR IS IN THE BACK OF THE HOUSE, SO WHEN YOU DRIVE IN , AND IT'LL BE FACING BACKWARDS""
A REAL FLIPPERS PARADISE APPROACHING WITH ALL THE FORCLOSURES COMING UP!!!!
Read how it's really done, and the angles they play and work at....
It ain't fun or easy....
CAVEAT!!! Don't try this at home!!!
==================================
Foreclosures drive one housing market sector
BY DAN VOORHIS
The Wichita Eagle
house flipping
A small group of scavengers have been able to exploit a knowledge of the law and housing to scratch out a living from housing foreclosures.
It's a small and peculiar slice of the house-flipping market, say participants and lawyers.
But it may be one that grows as more people become distressed. Across the nation, nearly $1.3 trillion in adjustable rate mortgages will reset themselves to higher interest rates this year, according to mortgage agency FreddieMac. A higher rate can add hundreds of dollars to a monthly payment.
A lot of people think they can get into house flipping, but there's no easy money, said attorney Frank Ojile.
"It's fairly easy to get in," he said. "It's how long you survive."
The process starts when a house goes into foreclosure. Ninety percent of the time, the homeowners have so little equity in the house that they just let it go back to the bank without a fuss, lawyers say. But sometimes the homeowner has significant equity, and that's when these flippers go into action.
Foreclosed houses go to a sheriff's auction at 10 a.m. every Wednesday in the basement of the Sedgwick County Courthouse. Ten to 15 regular house flippers show up every week.
Last week, they gathered in the conference room with their lists. They already knew the legal status, condition and appraised value of each house.
Attorneys representing the banks announced how much the banks wanted to end the foreclosure. Nobody bid and meeting was over in 10 minutes.
Then the flippers dashed out the door and raced to the few homes considered to be good deals.
There are between 40 and 60 houses at each auction, but only two or four are considered good deals, attorneys say.
These are good deals because the homeowners have paid down the mortgage. That means the bank wants far less money than the house is worth in resale. That gap is where the flippers make their money.
They go so hard because they want be the first to the house in order to buy the homeowners' redemption rights.
The law gives homeowners at least three months to come up with a payment to the bank. In that time, the homeowner can still sell the house or can live in the house rent-free.
But if a flipper buys their redemption rights -- an offer of a few thousand dollars is typical -- the homeowner forfeits the right to sell the house. They also lose the equity they built up.
Then the flippers fix up the house and put it on the market. If they sell it fast enough, they don't even have to put down much cash.
Too many people think it's easy, said flipper Mark Funk, but the process is complicated and the competition intense.
Funk also objects to the practice of some flippers who don't tell homeowners they may be able to recoup some of their equity.
Some homeowners don't care, he said, but some are just ignorant of their rights.
He and his wife, Robyn Soerries-Funk of Realty One Corp., try to get people in foreclosure to put their houses on the market.
"In this business you have a lot of people who are good," he said, "and some who are unscrupulous and less than honest."
http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/business/16614133.htm
Dean Baker, from another Blog, reporting on the empty housing numbers....
================================
Housing Vacancy Rate Hits New Record
This is another one of my preemptive strikes. Perhaps the most under-reported release of economic data is the quarterly data on housing vacancy rates from the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau just released the data for fourth quarter of 2006. This showed the vacancy rate for owner occupied housing hitting 2.7 percent. This is up 50 percent from the 1.8 percent rate of two years ago.
This is big news. The vacancy rate for ownership units has hovered near 1.5 percent for 50 years. It had never previously crossed 2.0 percent. The most recent Census Department estimates means that there are more than 2 million ownership units sitting vacant. In most cases, this means that an owner is paying a mortgage on a home for which they are collecting no rent. Few homeowners can afford to pay a mortgage on a house in which they don’t live for very long.
This record vacancy rate is likely to mean considerably more downward pressure on house sale prices in the months ahead. It will likely mean downward pressure on rents as well, as some vacant units will eventually be put up for rent.
In any case, this release from the Census Bureau is a big deal and the media should take notice.
--Dean Baker
================================
Report from fort lauderdale, yesterday while driving I was overwhelmed with the number of open houses, literally 2-3 per street in our area, and a lot of activity that looks like people preparing to list, (this week is bulk removal, when you see a lot of old appliances you can almost bet the house will be listed in a month or so) I predict the inventory for Broward is going to take a big jump, I wish I had the time to go into some of the open houses to gauge traffic but judging from the lack of cars near the vacant houses, not too much traffic.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL MUST HAVE HEARD CRAZY'S RANTINGS:
==================================
Vacant Homes For Sale Cloud Economic Hopes
By Michael Corkery
Word Count: 1,180
Amid brightening hopes that the U.S. housing market is stabilizing, some economists are zeroing in on a piece of data that could augur badly for the consensus view: the homeowner vacancy rate.
That figure, an often-overlooked measure of how many homes for sale in the country are empty, has climbed to its highest level since the Census Bureau began tracking it four decades ago. Last week, the bureau said that in the final three months of 2006 there were about 2.1 million vacant homes for sale.
That brought the national homeowner vacancy rate to 2.7%, up from 2.0% a year ...
=================================
""AUGUR BADLY""....This boy doesn't seem to 'optimistic', like some realtors have been pronouncing....
From the Sun-Sentinel blog;
=================================
patrickfll wrote:
I read that vacancy rate tempered the outlook of builders, but I bet the dumbassed realtors will sing the praises of buying now!
Do not buy now!
++++++++++++++
Don't they always? The fact I found funny is that there are 8000 realtors in Palm Beach County- 600+ sales last month. Given that some of them probably had multiple sales, my guess is that about 400 or less actually made any $$ at all. Is it any wonder they are lying and begging?
=================================
Crazy thinks the realtors gotta be starving....One of the realtors we had been working with admitted to our landlord, they hadn't sold a house in the last 6 mos, of 2006...And that was for the whole company, of 6+ realtors....
In Palm Beach County, having 600+ sales, with 27,000 listings, and 1.25 million people, YOU GOTTA KNOW SOMETHING IS DRASTICALLY WRONG!!!
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2020.05.18酒店小姐的基本介紹跟工作內容受到疫情影響，全台酒店、我在酒店上班的日子遭勒令停業，酒店小姐也暫時失業。一名網友就表示酒店小姐一定有S？，他看到有些新時代的獨立女性都會說，做酒店 八大行業是哪八種行業呢?不一定會賣身，只是趁年輕趕緊存錢，且不偷不搶已經存到人生第一桶金；不過原PO好奇，「酒店妹職場須知 【酒店PT 】不是會被帶出場嗎，難道只是單純吃宵夜？」貼文曝光後引發熱議。原PO在PTT指出，他看到一些新時代的獨立女性，都會說做酒店不一定會賣身，只是趁年輕存錢，「不偷不搶已經存了第一桶金，酸民有嗎？」而這種文章下面一堆女孩點讚，但原PO疑惑，「酒店妹不是會被帶出場嗎，難道只是單純吃宵夜？有沒有酒店打工這方面的八卦？」貼文一岀引發熱議，網友紛紛回應：「不一定賣身是在說別人，用別人的案例說服你」、「好像帶出場做什麼都可以，就是賣時間陪你，但S要另計的樣子」、「就S…不然能幹嘛」、「看是哪種框」。除了發生性行為外，也有過來人舉出自己的經驗，紛紛表示「玩動物森友會」、「麻將缺一位，湊酒店妹不行哦？」「有錢人都花錢帶酒店妹去聊天啊」、「吃清粥小菜」、「唱歌、打保齡球、打撞球、射飛鏢」、「看臉，臉不OK就吃消夜」、「打遊戲王卡」、「踏青旅遊逛書展」、「上次帶一個大學生出場，請她幫我寫期中報告」、「我朋友上次框酒店妹出來幫他解微積分題目，給你參考 」、「談情說愛」、「遊戲王決鬥啊，妹子沒輸過」、「探討人生哲理」、「補習英文啦」、「相約考國考」。
2020.09.17不敢來酒店上班-酒店打工的原因這個問題要看妳想上的店型模式去做決定的酒店小姐的基本介紹跟工作內容妳是可以考慮以下的店型:
一、鋼琴酒吧: 【酒店小姐】【酒店公關】工作服務內容除一般的桌服外就是喝酒聊天 但這種店型酒會喝的比較多一點 因為這種店型的主要消費就是酒錢酒店小姐酒店公關酒店上班到底都在做麼?所以希望小姐可以有銷酒的功能 因為這種類型屬較單純的 客人來這消費也主要是白領階級較多 客層很單純!!小姐著自己的便服有分午晚場~公檯的方式 日薪大概2000~4000不等
二、禮服店:是著禮服 班別午晚場 有幾家店是有一套固定的禮服 或要妳要自備一件!價位大概在1500~3000不等!這種店型是要看檯的 也就是會有看檯的壓力!所以這樣店型的小姐建議外型上要比較打扮亮麗一點 比較有上檯的機會!
三、便服店:小姐素質都比較高質感 外型上大部分都是黑長直髮高瘦型的優質小姐 著便服 當然有很多人都說便服店都會有拼框的壓力...當然 一樣如同上所說 妳只要比別人用心 也不會有賺不到錢的壓力了!!上班的時間是21:00~03:00。所以不要覺得好像要來這行上班一定要多漂亮或是身材要多好基本上~只要你不胖(有點肉也沒關係)經過打扮後都是可以上班很順利的
我在酒店上班的日子整理以上:
1.只要不過胖都可以試試 高矮不重要 重要是身材比例(如身高減110左右 是標準身材)
2.酒量問題可以克服 (如閃酒 吐酒 擋酒和耍賴等很多方法)
3.建議妳來台北試試 畢竟是首善之區 消費能力較強 比較有機會賺到錢 不會坐冷板凳做白工
4.建議妳去看看台北的禮服店 不用治裝費 不脫不秀
5.傾聽也是好手挽 若妳能讓客人打開話夾子更好 男人來消費就是暫時想找到自己的舞台 其他手挽再慢慢學習
6.上天總是給機會對準備好的人
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