Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Little Empty Houses - For You and Me

From Marketwatch - we've now reached an all-time high in overbuilt housing.

'WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of vacant homes waiting to be sold surged 34% to 2.1 million at the end of 2006 compared with the end of 2005, by far the fastest increase ever recorded, the Census Bureau reported Monday.

A year ago, 1.57 million homes were vacant and awaiting a sale.

The vacancy rate for owned units jumped to a record 2.7% from 2.0% a year earlier. From 1965 to 2005, the homeowner vacancy rate had never been above 2%. The long-term average is 1.4%.'

So, in laymen's terms, what does this mean for the housing market?

'"We have more than a million housing units of excess supply," said James O'Sullivan, an economist for UBS. "If you are looking for evidence that the worst is over for housing, you're not going to find it in this report. This argues that housing starts need to go down more."'

And some discussion on how this will affect rentals, which will affect inflation.

'Meanwhile, the homeownership rate (the percentage of homes occupied by their owners) was essentially steady at 68.9%, the government said, close to the all-time high of 69.3%.

With so many vacant homes for sale, owners will begin to offer them for rent, said Asha Bangalore, an economist for Northern Trust. If the supply of rentals rises, rental prices should begin to come down, helping to bring down core inflation.'

(thanks to Crazy G)


ft lauderdale said...

I suspect the vacancy rate may be a little understated with all of the "liar's loans" out there all claiming primary residency. Does anyone know if there are there any statistics local rates of vacancy?

CRAZY G said...

""The crack is in the dam supporting the prices, says Crazy"

Rather long story, so you can understand the point, being made....

The builder/developer in our community, started selling 'pre-construction' townhouse prices in early 2005, @$150k....as they came to fruition, he started raising prices to $200k, then to $250k, by the end of the calender year 2005..
After the beginning of the calender year 2006, few if any townhouses were sold period, but that didn't stop the price increases nor building, as he raised prices to $275k, then to $300k on the most recent """UNCOMPLETED"" units standing there unfinished....
He's got 8 left, from the first 60 or so that they built, and 20 more in the uncompleted phase....Of the 60 completed, there are probably another 10 or more for sale by flippers, making total of 18-20 of the 60 for sale, of the completed units....

SSSOOOO!!!! WHAT HAPPENED, you asked????

WELL!! One of the original $150k buyers wanted out, for what ever reason, and listed it months ago, at $250k...IT DIDN'T SELL....dropped the price, by some, then some more....
Recently sold at approximately $205K ""FURNISHED""



CRAZY G said...


""Of the 80 or so, townhouse units, that have been built or are in the process of being built, 'nearly' 40 remain on the market...

And prior to this latest sale, there has NOT been another previous sale in 6-9 months...

What's going to happen when.....
You gotta be Crazy to figure that one out!!!

jayz said...

Ft. Lauderdale - I agree with you. Freakin' Florida is most definitely carrying a lot of the weight in those vacancy statistics. In Tampa and Orlando, I've recently seen completed townhome communities with only a handful of units with their lights on at night. We are SO overbuilt.

Wayne said...

"With so many vacant homes for sale, owners will begin to offer them for rent, said Asha Bangalore, an economist for Northern Trust. If the supply of rentals rises, rental prices should begin to come down, helping to bring down core inflation."

This is already happening big-time in Sarasota. In the Laurel Park neighborhood - a charming, historically coveted close-to-downtown neighborhood mostly built in the '20s, with a nice mix of single-family houses, cottages and small apartment buildings - for rent signs are sprouting like hurricane lilies. In a complete reversal from a year ago, for rent signs outnumber for sale signs by about 4 to 1.

I just rented a place in a less charming part of town, vacant since November, in a large, late-to-market condo-conversion project. The monthly rent had come down from $1,200 to $1,000. But if I had wanted to buy the unit I'm renting, the asking price would still be $210,000. So, let me see . . . I can put down a $1,000 security deposit and then pay rent of $1,000 a month . . . or I could put down $13,000 in down-payment and closing costs and then pay about $2,000 monthly for PITI and monthly maintenance. Which do I want to do?

Well, I should buy, of course! Never mind simple mathematical reality or the huge overhang of nearly completed condo towers just now hitting the market. At least that's the word from the Sarasota Association of Realtors, which just launched a "Time2Buy" marketing blitz. See, it's not the market - it's the lying media! The market has actually bottomed! Traffic is picking up! Sellers are getting multiple offers! Better hurry!

zippo said...

Crazy - I feel sorry for the moron who bought that unit for $205K.

(actually, I don't - why can I never tell a lie?)


zippo said...

Sarasota/Bradenton is the absolute center of the giant real estate zit known as florida that is about to spew nasty pus all over the place.

Nobody here will survive this without a messy face.

Anonymous said...

Dang, brother! That is a nasty picture...but I get your point.

I nominate Palm Beach as the epicenter. It is gettin' fuglier by the day.

Anonymous said...

Can we get a counter or something for the day when it is somewhat safe to buy a house? =P

CRAZY G said...

GOOD time to buy, is when it makes the front page of TIME Magazine, about how really bad it is...

They unknowingly called the top, in 2005, saying how good it was...remember????

CRAZY G said...

Something to note here, that maybe under the radar...

There has been a 'slight' tightening of credit standards, to some degree.....
Something as innoccent, as requiring first time homebuyers to have 5% down instead of 100-115% financing..
YAHH!!! I know, it doesn't seem like a lot, but considering where we've come from, 'just' having somebody to put any money IS a big thing....
""BUT"", what in fact will happen, is when the banks and finance companies finally start eating humble pie, THAT'S WHEN YOU SEE THE CREDIT RESTRICIONS REALLY TIGHTEN....
Within 6 mos or more after those zero down loans collapse, you see the banks head for the hills, with money also!!!

CRAZY G said...

Well, it certainly looks like Gov. Crist, is going to save us all, like somebody said he was going to do 2000 years ago....
His statement at the end of the article gives you an indication of what kind of ""SNEAKY" s.o.b you have as a Governor....

>>>""""It is a balancing test," Crist said, defending his keeping the proposal under wraps to avoid alerting the insurance industry and giving it time to mobilize. "You want to give as much notice as you possibly can without risking the cancellation of policies for innocent Floridians.... Sometimes you can let the industry know too much, and they will take advantage of it."<<<<<<<



Insurance rule suspends policy cancellations


CRAZY G said...

So, the latest 'caveat emptor' for the real estate buyer, is:


In the past, the norm used to be 6%, with some sellers negoitating 3-5% as an alternative....

>Stephen Bartlett is trying to sell a three-bedroom Lauderhill house with a new roof and kitchen and other upgrades. He's asking $265,000 and recently decided to give the buyer's real estate agent a 10 percent commission.

"I've already had more people call me on that property in the last weeks than I had in the last year," Bartlett said.

Bartlett, a real estate agent, is portfolio manager for CT Capital, a Fort Lauderdale lender and investor. CT Capital acquired the Lauderhill property through foreclosure and is pricing it below market value, he said.

A standard commission is 6 percent, with the buyer's agent and seller's agent each pocketing 3 percent.

But given how slow South Florida's housing market is, sellers should prepare to make huge concessions on price and commission, lest they want the properties to sit unsold for months, he said.

"I think this is going to be the norm from now on," Bartlett said.


jayz said...

10% - WTF?!

My next buyer's agent is soooo screwed. I will have it put in writing that any commision above 3% will go directly to me.

Nice try, jagoffs.

CRAZY G said...

From the other blog;

JPMorgan CEO James Dimon said that the company has sold off most of the mortgage loans it made last year to people with weak credit histories. He said mortgages are the one area of subprime lending where ‘we really see something taking place that looks like a recession.’”

He said in the presentation that ‘loss severities’ in subprime mortgages have started increasing, and that delinquencies of subprime loans originated last year are higher than at a comparable time. JPMorgan boosted its provision for loan losses to $262 million from $158 million a year earlier, due in part to what the bank described as ’some deterioration in subprime mortgage.’”

Crazy's take on it is:
These guys knew they were loaning money to weak credit risks, but as long as they could cut a commission on the mortgage they took it????? NOW!!! They are dumping those poor mortgage risks onto somebody else.....

P.T. Barnum, was correct...there is a sucker born everyday, 'if' they can get away with it???

sandi said...

What I want to know is, with 2.1 million empty houses, WHO is going to buy them? Illegal aliens? Rich retirees who need 2nd and 3rd homes?

This is quite special.

CRAZY G said...

|||||||""""MARK IN ON YOUR CALENDAR ....JUNE 1 st""""|||||

What 's the big deal with June 1st????

Well, it appears it's one of the dates that the finance industry uses to reset their mortgages....
kinda universal, so they can 'bundle' and sell the mortgages off to some unsuspecting buyer....

Any way, I recently met with my absentee landlord, who owns several flipper homes, and lives up in New England....A couple of his houses are empty, and for sale, or for rent....He told me that he had just talked to the realtor, and 'they' wanted to keep the listing for a longer period....He said "NO", you got till May 1 st...
I couldn't figure out why he was so adament about May 1 st.....
SSOO!!! After he left, I got on my computer, and looked up his properties....
Well!!! This guy has got 'pay-option' mortgages on them...
INTEREST STARTING AT 1%, and reseting every June 1 st....


As a side note, to his meeting with the realtor, he told me that the realtor, had ""NO"" sales for the 6 mos leading up to Jan 1 st....And that's with approximately 6 agents under them to boot....Since the first of the year, he said they sold 6.....

SSOO!!! MARK THE DATE JUNE 1 st, ON YOUR MENTAL CALENDAR.....There's going to be something big happening then!!!!

CRAZY G said...

From the article posted here @ Fl Paradise Lost;
With so many vacant homes for sale, owners will begin to offer them for rent, said Asha Bangalore, an economist for Northern Trust. If the supply of rentals rises, rental prices should begin to come down, helping to bring down core inflation


CRAZY G said...


Read how it's really done, and the angles they play and work at....
It ain't fun or easy....

CAVEAT!!! Don't try this at home!!!

Foreclosures drive one housing market sector
The Wichita Eagle
house flipping

A small group of scavengers have been able to exploit a knowledge of the law and housing to scratch out a living from housing foreclosures.

It's a small and peculiar slice of the house-flipping market, say participants and lawyers.

But it may be one that grows as more people become distressed. Across the nation, nearly $1.3 trillion in adjustable rate mortgages will reset themselves to higher interest rates this year, according to mortgage agency FreddieMac. A higher rate can add hundreds of dollars to a monthly payment.

A lot of people think they can get into house flipping, but there's no easy money, said attorney Frank Ojile.

"It's fairly easy to get in," he said. "It's how long you survive."

The process starts when a house goes into foreclosure. Ninety percent of the time, the homeowners have so little equity in the house that they just let it go back to the bank without a fuss, lawyers say. But sometimes the homeowner has significant equity, and that's when these flippers go into action.

Foreclosed houses go to a sheriff's auction at 10 a.m. every Wednesday in the basement of the Sedgwick County Courthouse. Ten to 15 regular house flippers show up every week.

Last week, they gathered in the conference room with their lists. They already knew the legal status, condition and appraised value of each house.

Attorneys representing the banks announced how much the banks wanted to end the foreclosure. Nobody bid and meeting was over in 10 minutes.

Then the flippers dashed out the door and raced to the few homes considered to be good deals.

There are between 40 and 60 houses at each auction, but only two or four are considered good deals, attorneys say.

These are good deals because the homeowners have paid down the mortgage. That means the bank wants far less money than the house is worth in resale. That gap is where the flippers make their money.

They go so hard because they want be the first to the house in order to buy the homeowners' redemption rights.

The law gives homeowners at least three months to come up with a payment to the bank. In that time, the homeowner can still sell the house or can live in the house rent-free.

But if a flipper buys their redemption rights -- an offer of a few thousand dollars is typical -- the homeowner forfeits the right to sell the house. They also lose the equity they built up.

Then the flippers fix up the house and put it on the market. If they sell it fast enough, they don't even have to put down much cash.

Too many people think it's easy, said flipper Mark Funk, but the process is complicated and the competition intense.

Funk also objects to the practice of some flippers who don't tell homeowners they may be able to recoup some of their equity.

Some homeowners don't care, he said, but some are just ignorant of their rights.

He and his wife, Robyn Soerries-Funk of Realty One Corp., try to get people in foreclosure to put their houses on the market.

"In this business you have a lot of people who are good," he said, "and some who are unscrupulous and less than honest."


CRAZY G said...

Dean Baker, from another Blog, reporting on the empty housing numbers....

Housing Vacancy Rate Hits New Record
This is another one of my preemptive strikes. Perhaps the most under-reported release of economic data is the quarterly data on housing vacancy rates from the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau just released the data for fourth quarter of 2006. This showed the vacancy rate for owner occupied housing hitting 2.7 percent. This is up 50 percent from the 1.8 percent rate of two years ago.

This is big news. The vacancy rate for ownership units has hovered near 1.5 percent for 50 years. It had never previously crossed 2.0 percent. The most recent Census Department estimates means that there are more than 2 million ownership units sitting vacant. In most cases, this means that an owner is paying a mortgage on a home for which they are collecting no rent. Few homeowners can afford to pay a mortgage on a house in which they don’t live for very long.

This record vacancy rate is likely to mean considerably more downward pressure on house sale prices in the months ahead. It will likely mean downward pressure on rents as well, as some vacant units will eventually be put up for rent.

In any case, this release from the Census Bureau is a big deal and the media should take notice.

--Dean Baker

ft lauderdale said...

Report from fort lauderdale, yesterday while driving I was overwhelmed with the number of open houses, literally 2-3 per street in our area, and a lot of activity that looks like people preparing to list, (this week is bulk removal, when you see a lot of old appliances you can almost bet the house will be listed in a month or so) I predict the inventory for Broward is going to take a big jump, I wish I had the time to go into some of the open houses to gauge traffic but judging from the lack of cars near the vacant houses, not too much traffic.

CRAZY G said...


Vacant Homes For Sale Cloud Economic Hopes
By Michael Corkery
Word Count: 1,180
Amid brightening hopes that the U.S. housing market is stabilizing, some economists are zeroing in on a piece of data that could augur badly for the consensus view: the homeowner vacancy rate.

That figure, an often-overlooked measure of how many homes for sale in the country are empty, has climbed to its highest level since the Census Bureau began tracking it four decades ago. Last week, the bureau said that in the final three months of 2006 there were about 2.1 million vacant homes for sale.

That brought the national homeowner vacancy rate to 2.7%, up from 2.0% a year ...

""AUGUR BADLY""....This boy doesn't seem to 'optimistic', like some realtors have been pronouncing....

CRAZY G said...

From the Sun-Sentinel blog;
patrickfll wrote:
I read that vacancy rate tempered the outlook of builders, but I bet the dumbassed realtors will sing the praises of buying now!
Do not buy now!
Don't they always? The fact I found funny is that there are 8000 realtors in Palm Beach County- 600+ sales last month. Given that some of them probably had multiple sales, my guess is that about 400 or less actually made any $$ at all. Is it any wonder they are lying and begging?

Crazy thinks the realtors gotta be starving....One of the realtors we had been working with admitted to our landlord, they hadn't sold a house in the last 6 mos, of 2006...And that was for the whole company, of 6+ realtors....
In Palm Beach County, having 600+ sales, with 27,000 listings, and 1.25 million people, YOU GOTTA KNOW SOMETHING IS DRASTICALLY WRONG!!!

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, Jaco Costa Rica
Fishing Charters
, Jaco Costa
Rica Fishing Packages
, Jaco
Costa Rica Sport Fishing